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Chronicles

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Samsung's Q1 profit of ~$14.7B, up 57.6% YoY, beat estimates in preliminary results on sales of ~$56.1B, up 18.7% YoY; full earnings expected in late April

SEOUL (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930.KS) tipped a surprise record first-quarter profit on Friday but market reaction …

Reuters Joyce Lee

Context & Ripple Effects

Samsung is topping its own records again. The streak that began with the Q4 2016 forecast of $7.8B, then its highest in more than three years, continued through the record ~$12B Q2 2017 forecast, and now lands at ~$14.7B for Q1 2018 — a third successive all-time high, each one beating analyst estimates at the preliminary stage.

First-order effects

  • Samsung shareholders get a beat on both lines — profit up 57.6% YoY and sales up 18.7% to ~$56.1B — but only as a preliminary figure; the division-level detail that explains the beat arrives with full earnings in late April.

Second-order effects

  • The same cycle is lifting Samsung's closest memory rival: SK Hynix is also reporting record earnings and matching Samsung's eye-catching worker bonuses, so the beat tightens rather than redistributes the duopoly's position — where Samsung already held 25% of Q2 NAND flash shipments.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern of successive record quarters holds through 2018, record profits compound into capex and compensation advantages that raise the capital bar for any challenger in memory — concentrating the market further around Samsung and SK Hynix.

The trend: Samsung's quarterly results have set successive records from Q4 2016 through Q1 2018, one data point in a memory-led earnings upcycle that is enriching SK Hynix alongside it.