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An analysis of 100T+ tokens from the past year shows reasoning models now represent over half of all usage, open-weight model use has grown steadily, and more

An Empirical 100 Trillion Token Study with OpenRouter  —  Malika Aubakirova*Alex Atallah†Chris Clark†Justin Summerville†Anjney Midha*

OpenRouter

Discussion

  • @xlr8harder @xlr8harder on x
    Most interesting chart in this for me so far is this one: I'm surprised about the the large MiniMax M2 share—this is not a model I hear much about. [image]
  • @openrouterai @openrouterai on x
    Chinese models: grew from ~1% to around 30% in some weeks. Release velocity + quality make the market lively. [image]
  • @xanderatallah Alex Atallah on x
    Our first company paper! Published 1 year after the first reasoning model. Check out the “Glass Slipper effect” for LLMs and other insights.
  • @emresarbak Emre Sarbak on x
    Wow, Deepseek is basically a roleplay model [image]
  • @openrouterai @openrouterai on x
    We collaborated with @a16z to publish the **State of AI** - an empirical report on how LLMs have been used on OpenRouter. After analyzing more than 100 trillion tokens across hundreds of models and 3+ million users (excluding 3rd party) from the last year, we have a lot of [image…
  • @openrouterai @openrouterai on x
    We hope that it will help you make better decisions about where to invest, what to build, and where AI adoption is heading next. Read the paper here https://openrouter.ai/...
  • @openrouterai @openrouterai on x
    OSS isn't “just for tinkering” - it is extremely popular in two areas: 🧙‍♂️ Roleplay / creative dialogue: >50% of OSS usage 🧑‍💻 Programming assistance: ~15-20% [image]
  • @scaling01 @scaling01 on x
    The moment open-source models were close to 30% of OpenRouter traffic and almost all of them came from China with the notable models being: DeepSeek V3/R1, Qwen3 family, Kimi-K2 and GLM-4.5 + Air Minimax M2 is now also a major player, but open-weights models token-usage [image]
  • @swyx @swyx on x
    this one chart explains EVERYTHING about why OpenAI, xAI and Deepmind dropped everything to go chase after the grand prize in koding usecases as i said at AIE CODE and in my cogpost, Code AGI will be achieved in 20% of the time of full AGI, and capture 80% of the value of AGI. [i…
  • @tokenbender @tokenbender on x
    quite rich report from openrouter. points worth caring: - oss models have grown to have roughly 30% share on openrouter - code and companionship still major use-cases, ~70-80% - remaining use cases are like translation, trivia, general knowledge questions - chinese models have [i…
  • @openrouterai @openrouterai on x
    @AnjneyMidha ... One finding: we observe a Cinderella “Glass Slipper” effect for new models. Early users a new LLM either churn quickly or become part of a foundational cohort, with much higher retention than others. They are early adopters who can “lead” the rest of the market (…
  • @a16z @a16z on x
    >100 trillion token analysis of reasoning model usage over time Full piece from @MaikaThoughts, @AnjneyMidha, @xanderatallah, and @cclark: https://openrouter.ai/... [image]
  • @natolambert Nathan Lambert on x
    On a prompt count basis this mean reasoning models are not close to a majority on OpenRouter, as reasoning models can use 10-1000x the tokens of non-thinking models per prompt. Lots of need for fast, efficient open models. Reasoning model usage is likely closed labs more. [image]
  • @emollick Ethan Mollick on x
    Interesting study, but this is somewhat unexpected. (green is programming, yellow is role playing) [image]
  • @timfduffy.com Tim Duffy on bluesky
    Lots of interesting details in this new report on usage trends from OpenRouter. openrouter.ai/state-of-ai I've been wondering about mean coding input token length, in their data it's around 20k tokens.  Other large categories (roleplay, technology science) average around 5k [imag…