SoftBank shares are up 61% in 2025, making it one of Tokyo's top performers, on the back of AI and chip investments, as some investors question the upside
The Japanese investment giant's shares are up 61% this year, outperforming the benchmark Nikkei Stock Average's 8.5% gain. …
Context & Ripple Effects
SoftBank’s rally follows a broader pivot toward AI: its AI investment outlay had already more than doubled in the year after Masayoshi Son’s “counteroffensive,” as detailed in its earlier AI investment spending increase. A subsequent quarter of profit was also boosted by its Nvidia investment, reinforcing how portfolio marks can drive the group’s reported performance.
The move matters because investors are valuing SoftBank increasingly through its exposure to AI and semiconductor assets rather than solely as a diversified holding company. Yet the roughly 50% discount to net asset value signals that the market is still applying a substantial holding-company and execution discount.
First-order effects
- SoftBank shareholders gain from a 61% year-to-date rerating, far ahead of the Nikkei’s 8.5% advance, as AI and chip holdings become the immediate driver of sentiment.
- The remaining discount to net asset value puts the upside debate at the center of SoftBank’s valuation: asset appreciation alone is not fully translating into the share price.
Second-order effects
- Management faces greater pressure to turn investment exposure into operating capability, including through SB Neo’s planned AI-chip and cloud-services offering to large companies.
- SoftBank’s market performance makes it a more prominent listed vehicle for investors seeking AI and chip exposure in Tokyo, while making its valuation more sensitive to changes in the perceived value of those holdings.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern persists, public markets may assign holding companies a larger role as conduits for AI-infrastructure capital—but persistent NAV discounts will reward groups that can show both asset value and a credible path to monetization.
- The case also illustrates AI capex financialization: returns can increasingly depend on the pricing and financing of strategic stakes, not just on the operating results of the underlying technology businesses.
The trend: AI investment portfolios are becoming a material source of equity-market value, while investors demand proof that paper gains can be converted into durable operating returns.