Stanford researchers: over the past three years, employment has dropped 13% for entry-level workers just starting out in fields that are the most exposed to AI
Artificial intelligence is making it harder for entry-level workers in the US to find jobs in fields like software development …
BloombergRachel Metz
Context & Ripple Effects
Stanford’s finding puts a labor-market measure behind an earlier hiring signal: startups and Big Tech had already reduced recent-graduate hiring as routine work became automatable. It matters because entry-level roles are a primary route into software development and other AI-exposed career tracks.
Later coverage of the same research examined the study’s 2022-onward decline, while broader payroll analysis reported further weakness among workers aged 22 to 25 in highly AI-exposed occupations. Together, the coverage distinguishes an entry-level effect from a uniform contraction across all work.
First-order effects
New entrants in AI-exposed US fields face fewer available jobs, increasing competition for the remaining junior openings.
Employers can assign more routine, low-risk tasks to AI systems rather than using those tasks as supervised starter work for recent graduates.
Second-order effects
Firms may hire more selectively for junior roles and favor candidates who can demonstrate AI-assisted productivity, raising the value of practical experience over credentials alone.
Universities, training providers, and applicants face pressure to redesign early-career preparation around work that remains difficult to automate and around evidence of applied capability.
Third-order effects
If reduced entry hiring persists, employers’ traditional apprenticeship pipeline could weaken, creating a later shortage of workers who have accumulated the experience needed for senior roles.
The key structural question is whether AI substitutes for junior labor or changes junior job design; subsequent occupation-wide payroll evidence suggests the effect warrants tracking beyond software alone.
The trend: AI’s falling cost for routine knowledge tasks is shifting labor-market adjustment first toward entry-level roles, where work is standardized and training-intensive.
Not buying the spin here. Job losses in entry level tech from 2022 onward were a result of massive over-hiring in tech during the pandemic. Mark Zuckerberg called 2023 the ‘year of efficiency.’
We observe millions of workers each month. Use this cut the data finely by age and occ. What do we find? Stories about young SW developers struggling to find work borne out in data Employment for 22-25 y/o developers ⬇️ ~20% from peak in 2022. Older ages show steady rise. [image]
💼 Finally a solid 57-page report on AI's effect on job-market from Stanford University. THE SHIFT HAS STARTED. Entry‑level workers in the most AI‑exposed jobs are seeing clear employment drops, while older peers and less‑exposed roles keep growing. Though overall employment [imag…
🧵4/n. 📉 What changed for entry‑level in exposed jobs Among software developers and customer service workers, headcount for ages 22‑25 falls after late 2022, with software developers down ~20% from peak while older bands keep rising. Across occupations more broadly, the most [imag…
BREAKING: Stanford paper says AI is making it harder for entry-level tech bros to find jobs > early-career (ages 22-25) in AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 13% decline in employment > employment declines are concentrated in occupations where AI is likely to automate, [im…
Is AI already impacting the job market? A new paper from me, @erikbryn, and @RuyuChen at @DigEconLab digs into data from ADP. We find some of the ***first large-scale evidence of employment declines for entry-level workers in AI-exposed jobs.*** A thread on our paper: [image]
Software also underwent post COVID correction after over hiring and high interest rates. At the same time the triple AAA game industry is under excessive mismanagement by line goes up execs. [embedded post]
Forcing schools to overemphasize STEM at the cost of learning broader problem-solving skills has probably hurt students instead of equipping them for meaningful careers. [embedded post]
You have got to be kidding me with this. — 1. This isn't saying that Ai is replacing workers in these industries, just that young people have trouble finding work in some industries “most exposed to AI” — 2. This is based entirely on payroll data. No connection to A.I. - why…
Stanford researchers found that since 2022 entry level roles for accountants, developers & administrative assistants have dropped 13% while being stable for experienced workers. — They attribute this to the rise of generative AI. It's a tough time to give advice to high school…
So, as expected, generative AI is making it harder to get on the career ladder. This is not just theoretical; the data is bearing it out. — Paper: digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/ publications... /end