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Chronicles

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PitchBook: US VC investment in AI startups rose 33% QoQ to $65B in Q1, up 550% from the quarter prior to ChatGPT's 2022 release

Companies like OpenAI, Amazon and Meta have supersized their spending on artificial intelligence, with no signs of slowing down. Bluesky: @beyerstein Bluesky: Lindsay Beyerstein / @beyerstein : The frenzy is escalating and the bubble's going to burst.  None of these AI ventures are profitable, none of them are anywhere near AGI.

New York Times Cade Metz

Context & Ripple Effects

The reported Q1 jump extends a funding cycle that began with the post-ChatGPT venture rush and was already visible when AI captured nearly half of US startup funding in Q2 2024. By Q3 2024, AI also represented an outsized share of both US venture deal value and deal count, indicating that the expansion was broad enough to reshape overall VC allocation.

The $65 billion figure matters because it moves the story from a surge in AI interest to a dominant capital-allocation event within US venture markets. Subsequent PitchBook coverage found AI taking a majority of global VC dollars in H1 2025, reinforcing the direction of travel rather than treating Q1 as an isolated quarter.

First-order effects

  • AI startups have a substantially larger pool of venture capital to fund model development, compute use, hiring and go-to-market efforts, while investors can deploy larger checks into the category.
  • The increase reinforces AI as a central destination for US VC dollars, following AI's near-half share of US startup funding in Q2 2024.

Second-order effects

  • Funds and founders outside AI face stronger competition for investor attention and capital as portfolios tilt further toward AI-related opportunities.
  • Larger rounds can intensify competition among AI companies for the infrastructure, technical talent and commercial partnerships needed to turn funding into products.

Third-order effects

  • If AI continues to absorb a disproportionate share of venture capital, the startup market is likely to become more dependent on a smaller set of capital-intensive AI bets, rather than broadly distributed early-stage investment.
  • The pattern supports a shift toward AI's majority share of VC dollars and greater capital concentration around companies able to sustain large spending programs; whether that produces durable businesses will depend on commercial results, not funding volume alone.

The trend: AI is becoming the organizing capital-allocation theme of venture markets, with funding increasingly concentrating in compute-intensive companies and infrastructure-dependent business models.

Discussion

  • @beyerstein Lindsay Beyerstein on bluesky
    The frenzy is escalating and the bubble's going to burst.  None of these AI ventures are profitable, none of them are anywhere near AGI.