Q&A with Mary Meeker on publishing her first Trends report since 2019, its focus on the AI revolution, why OpenAI may have an insurmountable lead, and more
www.bondcap.com/reports/tai @eguango : if you want to know the nitty gritty of the state of AI, can't recommend this report from Mary Meeker strongly enough. [embedded post] Threads: Benedict Evans / @benedictevans : The most secure encryption on earth is anything you put on slide 320 of your 340 slide presentation X: Manish Singh / @refsrc : India dominates global ChatGPT mobile usage — from Mary Meeker's report [image] Ed Sim / @edsim : Mary Meeker's Trends - Artificial Intelligence (AI) is out and a must read chock full of data and insights ❤️ this: “but the exciting part is the consideration of what can go right. Time and Time again the case for optimism is one of the best bets one can make” Report here: Howard Lindzon / @howardlindzon : I ran Mary ‘Cathie Wood Palahapapooie’ Meeker's 349 page Ai research report through Chat GPT and it said buy $nvda and $goog and that she passed away during the internet bubble. @buccocapital : Mary Meeker leaving no stone unturned in her new 300+ page slide deck on AI. [image] @modestproposal1 : Interesting cause a Google Board deck last October also cited that a large share of Gemini DAU growth was in India, Indonesia and Philippines. [image] Henrique Dubugras / @hdubugras : So glad Mary and the Bond team put this together. Much needed compilation of everything that is going on in AI grounded by real metrics! https://www.bondcap.com/... Bond / @bondcap : The pace and scope of change related to artificial intelligence is happening materially faster than the Internet Revolution. Find our latest report, “Trends - Artificial Intelligence” here. https://www.bondcap.com/... David Marcus / @davidmarcus : I remember fondly the years when the entire tech industry was eagerly expecting the Mary Meeker annual trends report. Typically unveiled at the Code conference and delivered at breakneck speed. Excited to dive into this new one on AI over the weekend(s)! https://www.bondcap.com/... Pedro Franceschi / @pedroh96 : Amazing report by @bondcap and @marymeeker on the state of AI. https://www.bondcap.com/... LinkedIn: Katie Denton : 🚨 Light-weekend-reading alert 🚨 — Our team at BOND is thrilled to publish the AI Trends Report—300+ pages charting the tech … Alexander Krey : “Imagine, for a moment, how different your next week would look if there were no internet. Every facet of modern life - how we work … Forums: Hacker News : Mary Meeker's first Trends report since 2019, focused on AI
Context & Ripple Effects
Mary Meeker’s return to publishing a Trends report shifts her long-running internet-market lens toward AI, after her 2018 edition tracked maturing consumer-internet indicators such as e-commerce growth and smartphone shipment stagnation. The new report treats AI as the dominant change vector rather than a feature within the existing internet cycle.
Its competitive framing arrives as evidence has pointed to sharply rising frontier-model costs in the Stanford AI Index’s assessment of top-model training, while platforms have pursued differing routes to AI integration and modularization. The report’s cited ChatGPT mobile-use concentration in India adds a distribution dimension to its argument about OpenAI’s lead.
First-order effects
- BOND’s report gives investors, operators, and AI buyers a prominent data-rich reference point for evaluating AI adoption, competitive positioning, and the claim that OpenAI’s lead could be durable.
- The emphasis on India’s ChatGPT mobile usage directs attention to where consumer AI engagement is concentrated, not only to the companies building frontier models.
Second-order effects
- OpenAI rivals face added pressure to show that model quality, product reach, or ecosystem distribution can counter a lead framed as potentially insurmountable; the relevant contest extends beyond benchmark performance.
- Enterprises and developers may weigh platform and distribution risk more heavily when choosing AI partners, particularly as high training costs reinforce the advantages of well-capitalized model providers.
Third-order effects
- If adoption and usage continue to concentrate around a small number of AI interfaces, AI competition may increasingly turn on distribution, user habits, and capital intensity rather than on model releases alone.
- The report is one more signal that AI is being assessed as a general-purpose technology rollout, though its faster-than-internet comparison remains a framing claim rather than proof of a settled market structure.
The trend: AI is moving from a model-development race toward a distribution-and-scale contest in which usage reach and the ability to finance frontier systems can compound incumbent advantages.