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Chronicles

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A 2024 Louisiana parole law cedes much of the parole board's power to TIGER, an algorithm with immutable risk scores, blocking thousands from early release

A Louisiana law cedes much of the power of the parole board to an algorithm that bars thousands of prisoners from a shot at early release.

ProPublica Richard A. Webster

Context & Ripple Effects

This is a consequential extension of criminal-justice risk scoring: earlier coverage tracked proprietary recidivism tools entering sentencing, bail, and guilt decisions, including a broader court-system reliance on third-party risk algorithms.

The Louisiana change moves the issue from decision support toward eligibility-setting. It follows years in which predictive systems were used across policing, sentencing, and probation, as documented in the expansion of predictive tools across criminal-justice settings.

First-order effects

  • People whose TIGER scores place them outside the law's criteria lose access to early-release consideration, affecting thousands of incarcerated Louisianans immediately.
  • Louisiana's parole board has less discretion in covered cases because the algorithmic score becomes a binding gatekeeper rather than one input among many.

Second-order effects

  • Challenges to parole outcomes are likely to focus more heavily on how TIGER's fixed scores are produced, updated, and reviewed, since score design now directly determines eligibility.
  • The shift raises the operational stakes for any corrections agency or vendor maintaining risk-scoring systems: errors or opaque criteria can affect release decisions at scale rather than merely inform them.

Third-order effects

  • If other jurisdictions adopt similarly binding rules, criminal-justice algorithms could increasingly convert administrative discretion into software-defined thresholds, intensifying demands for transparency, auditability, and avenues to contest outcomes.
  • The core governance question shifts from whether risk tools may assist officials to which decisions governments may delegate to them—a debate already visible in earlier scrutiny of proprietary sentencing algorithms.

The trend: This is one data point in the shift from algorithmic risk assessment as advice to algorithmic risk assessment as enforceable public-sector decision infrastructure.

Discussion

  • @hypervisible @hypervisible on bluesky
    TIGER was developed “as a rehabilitative measure about a decade ago, it was supposed to help prison officials determine what types of classes or counseling someone might need to prevent them from landing back behind bars — not be used as a punitive tool to keep them there...”
  • @prisonpolicy @prisonpolicy on x
    He: -is 70 years old -is nearly blind -uses a wheelchair -has taken anger management classes & drug treatment -had a clean disciplinary record. But because he drank while on community supervision 30 years ago he's no longer eligible for parole. https://veritenews.org/...
  • @propublica @propublica on x
    THREAD: Under a new law, thousands of prisoners in Louisiana have been cut off from ever getting a chance at parole. Why? Because an algorithm said so. 1/
  • @veritenewsnola @veritenewsnola on x
    From Aug. 1 to Dec. 13, 2024, an algorithm canceled at least 70 Louisiana prisoners' parole hearings, deeming them ineligible. One prisoner said he felt “betrayed.” “People in jail have ... lost hope in being able to do anything to reduce their time.” https://veritenews.org/...
  • @propublica @propublica on x
    @veritenewsnola 10/ Because the algorithm measures factors where racial disparities already exist, it could disproportionately harm Black people, civil rights attorneys added. Already, Black people make up two-thirds of Louisiana's prisons, more than double their share of the sta…
  • @richardawebster Richard A. Webster on x
    7-Louisiana is the only state to use such a risk tool to automatically eliminate people from parole, according to seven national criminal justice experts.
  • @richardawebster Richard A. Webster on x
    5-In 2024, Louisiana passed a law that ceded much of the power of the parole board to a computerized risk assessment tool. Only those deemed low-risk can be paroled. About 13,000 prisoners - nearly half of the state's prison population - have moderate or high risk scores.
  • @propublica @propublica on x
    @veritenewsnola 8/ Here's the thing: TIGER was never intended to be punitive. The creators said they developed the tool to help prison officials determine classes or counseling a prisoner might need to help *prevent* them from landing back behind bars. [image]
  • @propublica @propublica on x
    4/ From Aug. 1 — when the law took effect — to Dec. 13, 2024, at least 70 Louisiana prisoners' parole hearings were canceled just like that, ProPublica and @VeriteNewsNOLA found: https://www.propublica.org/...
  • @richardawebster Richard A. Webster on x
    3-An algorithm deemed the 70-year-old, nearly blind man to be a moderate risk of reoffending. And under a new law signed by Gov. Jeff Landry, that means Alexander and thousands of prisoners like him are no longer eligible for parole. https://shorturl.at/B1KTr
  • @richardawebster Richard A. Webster on x
    1-THREAD: Calvin Alexander thought he had done everything the Louisiana parole board asked of him to earn an early release from prison. He had taken anger management classes, learned a trade and enrolled in drug treatment. @veritenewsnola @propublica [image]
  • @propublica @propublica on x
    @veritenewsnola 9/ But under Gov. Landry's tough-on-crime agenda, TIGER became the sole measure of parole eligibility last August. Legal scholars say the way risk tools calculate a person's odds of reoffending is part of why no other state exclusively uses them to bar individuals…
  • @tracyjan Tracy Jan on x
    Amid critical national news coverage, don't miss @veritenewsnola @RichardAWebster's investigation into Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry's criminal justice policies like this dive into the new use of an algorithm that bars thousands of prisoners from parole. https://www.propublica.org/.…
  • r/Longreads r on reddit
    An Algorithm Deemed This Nearly Blind 70-Year-Old Prisoner a “Moderate Risk.”  Now He's No Longer Eligible for Parole.