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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Circle files for a US IPO, with plans to list on the NYSE under CRCL; Circle, which issues the USDC stablecoin, is reportedly seeking a $4B to $5B valuation

Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin, has filed for an initial public offering and plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange.

CNBC

Context & Ripple Effects

Circle’s public filing advances an IPO path that had been signaled by its confidential US IPO submission in early 2024. Earlier coverage had also described the company exploring a listing after a prior $9B valuation tied to its abandoned SPAC route, making the reported $4B–$5B target a meaningful new reference point.

The filing would put the USDC issuer on a conventional US public-market track, with a planned NYSE listing under CRCL rather than a return to the earlier SPAC approach.

First-order effects

  • Circle moves from a confidential process to a disclosed NYSE IPO plan, giving prospective investors a named issuer, ticker, and reported valuation range to evaluate.
  • The reported $4B–$5B target resets the immediate valuation discussion below the $9B level associated with the company’s earlier attempted SPAC listing.

Second-order effects

  • A public filing creates a clearer market benchmark for USDC-linked exposure, concentrating investor attention on Circle’s disclosures and IPO pricing rather than private-market estimates.
  • The valuation range raises the stakes for the eventual offering terms: investor demand will determine whether Circle can convert its target into a durable public-market reference price.

Third-order effects

  • If Circle completes the listing, public equities would gain a more direct way to value a stablecoin issuer, potentially making IPO performance a reference point for comparable crypto-infrastructure companies.
  • The path from confidential filing to public listing suggests stablecoin businesses may increasingly seek conventional capital-market legitimacy, though the durability of that shift will depend on actual listing outcomes and investor appetite.

The trend: Stablecoin infrastructure is moving toward more formal US capital-markets participation, with public listings becoming a test of how investors value the sector’s operating businesses.

Discussion

  • @matthew_sigel @matthew_sigel on x
    🚨 Circle Files for IPO $1.7B revenues (+16% y/y) $285M EBIDTA (-29% y/y) $155M Net Income (-42%) [image]
  • @wyatt_lonergan Wyatt Lonergan on x
    Partner costs are probably the biggest line item to pay attention to, but also the most misunderstood line item, coming out of Circle's IPO filing. Today, Coinbase takes the lion share of USDC revenue as the primary distribution partner. $900m ish of that $1 billion number.
  • @matthew_sigel @matthew_sigel on x
    Circle's revenues grew 16% but EBITDA and Net Income fell sharply. Why? Four main reasons —> Increased Partner Costs: A significant rise in distribution and transaction costs driven by higher fees paid to partners like Coinbase, due to increased reserve income and strategic
  • @riddle245 @riddle245 on x
    Everyone wants to invest in stablecoins but Circle which is the #2 player has to pay $1B to Coinbase just to circulate USDC and telling you if Fed cuts 200 bps they lose 400M of “revenue” and go in the red [image]
  • @splitcapital Zaheer on x
    Circle's IPO filing is a good look into how crypto companies actually run. We're very much seeing the same problem that's plagued fintech for a long time: partnerships end up benefiting the partner brand for the fintech. Circle's bottom line is not as interesting as it seems.
  • @lowstrife @lowstrife on x
    Their direct competitor Tether is the most profitable company in the world because yields are absolute mana from heaven right now, we have bull market growth And despite all of that, Circle is barely breaking even 0\10 would not buy this dogshit IPO
  • @mdudas Mike Dudas on x
    everyone found out that coinbase makes more on usdc than circle, same as base making a killing by being an “eth-aligned” central sequencer chain
  • @zeneca @zeneca on x
    Everyone and their mother asking “how can I get stables exposure?” Circle: “hold my beer”
  • @vishalkgupta Vishal K. Gupta on x
    This shouldn't surprise anyone paying attention. There's a good deal of USDC “on platform” at Coinbase, where it's used to settle trades and collateral for spot & perps markets.
  • @0xg00gly @0xg00gly on x
    Fun fact, the Circle IPO prospectus has a reference to the USDC depeg around the SVB bankrun and weirdly mentions USDT just before. It is true that USDT depegged when SVB happened but the issue is that it traded *above* peg due to a flight to safety as traders rushed into USDT. […
  • @0xjaypeg Jay on x
    Circle grew revenue 100x (!!) from 2020 to 2023 2020: 15.4m 2021: 84.9m 2022: 772m 2023: 1.5b 2024: 1.7b I guess that's what happens when you combine product market fit with the fastest rate hikes in history! [image]
  • @sgjohnsson Scott Johnsson on x
    Damn, CB takes well over half of Circle's topline reserve revenue. Are we sure Circle's not a subsidiary? Actually crazy when comparing these financials against Tether. Different game entirely.
  • @alexh_johnson Alex Johnson on x
    Holy cow. I knew Coinbase had a sweet deal on USDC, but this is nuts. No wonder Armstrong wants to be allowed to kick back some of the $ as interest to users. With this arrangement in place, I'd want to drive as much growth of USDC as possible.
  • @_joshschafer Josh Schafer on x
    Circle has filed for an IPO. The company's estimated valuation is $5.73 billion, per @YahooFinance's private market data. https://finance.yahoo.com/... [image]
  • @livercoin @livercoin on x
    Circle saw the $NMAX IPO pull 2000% and decided that it's now or never 😂
  • @neilhar_ Neil on x
    IPOs from the crypto world like Circle, Kraken and eToro are quietly one of the most bullish things for the space. these companies going public means more mainstream exposure, more institutional confidence and more external validation. retail sees headlines. wall street analysts
  • @smallcapscience @smallcapscience on x
    The Circle IPO will have all of Wall Street researching Stablecoins. Tether is more profitable than Blackrock. A sentiment shift is coming...
  • @inkymaze Nick Cannon on x
    Some newly public info from Circle's CRCL Form S-1 $60M one-time fee to Binance who needs to hold $1.5B USDC minimum [image]
  • @livercoin @livercoin on x
    Circle digital assets Yikes? [image]
  • @jamesjho_ James Ho on x
    Circle earned ~$1.7b revenue in 2024 and paid out $900M+ to @coinbase as a distribution partner That ~$1B going to Coinbase likely comes with little to no cost/opex to serve.  At 10x earnings = $10 B mkt cap and likely contributes ~25% of $COIN valuation
  • @bfaviero Bruno F on x
    Interesting @circle IPO filing. Quick things I thought interesting: - $1.7B 2024 reserve income, $285M adjusted EBITDA - First real risk factor: “...the rise of yield-bearing digital assets, including TMMFs, that are attractive to digital asset trading participants, may reduce
  • @billbarx Bill Barhydt on x
    Congrats to team @circle and @jerallaire Circle's S-1 Registration to go public/IPO... https://www.sec.gov/...
  • @0xabhip Abhi on x
    BREAKING 🚨 circle officially filed for IPO today (S-1 with SEC) quick numbers: • revenue: $1.7B (+16% YoY) • EBITDA: $285M (-29% YoY) • net income: $155M (-42% YoY) • valuation: targeting ~$4-5B (feels a bit low imo) market sentiment is mixed: • some bullish, think [image]
  • @eleanorterrett Eleanor Terrett on x
    🚨NEW: As @circle files with the @SECGov for its IPO, Chief Strategy Officer @ddisparte endorses the House's STABLE Act set to be marked up tomorrow, urging a swift and bipartisan passage out of committee.
  • @pet3rpan_ @pet3rpan_ on x
    Looks like @circle is looking to IPO at $4bn-$5bn valuation, which feels incredibly cheap. Am I about to buy my first ever stock?
  • @harrystebbings Harry Stebbings on x
    The IPO window is opening baby!
  • @jacqmelinek Jacquelyn Melinek on x
    .@Circle filed for an IPO and some of you are still worried about the market sentiment right now This is just the beginning
  • @melt_dem Meltem Demirors on x
    congrats to @circle on filing their S-1 / IPO today it's great to have more high quality public crypto companies and equities research coverage gratz @jerallaire on the overnight success - fond memories buying corn on Circle in '15 and our early years @DCGco