Global smartwatch shipments fell 7% YoY in 2024, the market's first ever decline; Apple fell 19% while Huawei grew 35%, Xiaomi grew 135%, and Samsung grew 3%
- The global smartwatch market fell 7% in 2024, the first ever decline in the overall market. — Apple retained its top position …
Context & Ripple Effects
The downturn follows a period in which the category was still expanding: Q3 2023 shipments rose 9%, led by Apple’s best-ever third quarter while Huawei also grew strongly.
Earlier coverage shows Apple repeatedly driving category growth, including 50% Apple Watch growth in Q1 2021. The 2024 result matters because leadership now coexists with sharply divergent vendor performance rather than broad market expansion.
First-order effects
- Apple remains the global leader, but its 19% shipment decline is the principal drag on a market that contracted 7% overall.
- Huawei and Xiaomi gain momentum against the leader, with 35% and 135% shipment growth respectively; Samsung’s 3% growth leaves it comparatively stable in a shrinking market.
Second-order effects
- The vendor gap redistributes competitive attention toward the growth strategies of Huawei and Xiaomi, while Apple must defend its leading position from a lower shipment base.
- Aggregate contraction makes growth harder to interpret as category expansion: vendors that are growing are increasingly taking volume from weaker rivals rather than benefiting from a rising market tide.
Third-order effects
- If this divergence persists, the smartwatch business may become less Apple-led in shipment terms even if Apple retains first place, with regional and multi-device vendors playing a larger role in volume growth.
- The category is moving from its prior expansion phases toward a more contested replacement-and-share market, where vendor-specific execution matters more than broad demand growth.
The trend: Smartwatches appear to be entering a mature, uneven-growth phase in which overall demand can fall while challengers still gain share from the incumbent.