Chainalysis estimates $40B worth of illicit crypto transactions took place in 2024; criminals shifted from mostly using bitcoin in 2021 to using stablecoins now
Criminals are no longer using BTC, but instead choosing stablecoins, the report revealed. — What to know:
Context & Ripple Effects
Chainalysis’ estimate places 2024 after a period in which illicit-address receipts had fallen in 2023, while stablecoins had already overtaken bitcoin in illicit transaction volume. The new figure suggests that the asset mix, not merely the total volume, is central to assessing crypto-related financial crime.
The report also follows Chainalysis’ finding that sanctioned jurisdictions and entities accounted for a substantial share of 2024 illicit activity, with $15.8 billion received by sanctioned actors. That concentration makes the move toward stablecoins especially relevant to compliance systems.
First-order effects
- Compliance teams at stablecoin issuers, exchanges and blockchain-monitoring firms must prioritize tracing stablecoin flows rather than relying on bitcoin-centered illicit-finance controls.
- The estimate gives regulators and market participants a larger 2024 risk benchmark, while identifying stablecoins as the principal asset category to scrutinize.
Second-order effects
- Centralized exchanges may face greater pressure to improve screening and freezing processes for stablecoin deposits and withdrawals, particularly since illicit flows have increasingly ended up on those venues.
- Stablecoin issuers’ compliance practices become a more important competitive and policy issue as criminal usage shifts toward assets designed for stable value and transferability.
Third-order effects
- If this migration persists, crypto financial-crime enforcement will be shaped less by bitcoin’s transaction history and more by the governance, issuer controls and off-ramp access surrounding stablecoins.
- The pattern reinforces the crypto legitimacy gap: wider use of regulated payment-like tokens can coexist with intensified scrutiny of the infrastructure that moves and converts them.
The trend: Illicit crypto activity is becoming increasingly concentrated in stablecoin rails and the intermediaries that can monitor, freeze or redeem them.