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TEXXR

Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Sources: Huawei has increased its AI chip yield to nearly 40%, up from 20% about a year ago, meaning its Ascend chips are now profitable for the first time

Chinese company improves ‘yield’ of latest semiconductor, despite US efforts to prevent manufacturing advances

Financial Times

Context & Ripple Effects

Huawei’s Ascend push had moved from customer evaluation to a planned production ramp: Chinese internet companies were testing the Ascend 910C, and Huawei then targeted mass production of that chip despite supply constraints. It was also positioning Ascend for inference workloads as a domestic alternative in China’s AI infrastructure market.

The reported improvement matters because chip design capability only becomes commercially durable when enough usable output can support repeatable sales. It gives more substance to Huawei’s effort to win AI-chip share from Nvidia in its home market.

First-order effects

  • A near-doubling of usable output improves Ascend’s unit economics, allowing Huawei to sell the chip profitably rather than treating production primarily as a strategic capability-building effort.
  • Huawei gains a stronger basis to fulfill Ascend orders and support customers evaluating the platform, even while manufacturing restrictions remain a constraint.

Second-order effects

  • Chinese cloud and internet companies considering Ascend gain a more commercially viable domestic supply option for inference deployments, increasing pressure on Nvidia’s China-facing position.
  • Better yields make further production investment easier to justify and increase the value of Huawei’s software, systems, and customer-support work around Ascend hardware.

Third-order effects

  • If yield learning continues, restrictions on access to leading foreign chips may shift competition toward manufacturing execution, packaging approaches, and vertically integrated local AI stacks rather than design performance alone.
  • The broader market could become more regionally segmented: Chinese AI buyers may increasingly optimize around domestic accelerators and their associated software ecosystems, though sustained capacity and customer adoption remain decisive.

The trend: This is a data point in the industrialization of domestic AI hardware, where yield improvement converts a strategic substitute into a potentially durable commercial platform.

Discussion

  • @hsu_steve Steve Hsu on x
    @teortaxesTex I wouldn't trust the numbers from FT. It's all rumors and the reporters aren't chip experts. But directionally it's plausible that SMIC/HW are improving Ascend yields a lot. I think SemiAnalysis has even larger projections for 910C shipments in 2025.
  • @duluhagv @duluhagv on x
    Liang Mong-song is gonna push his way back to the frontier
  • @hsu_steve Steve Hsu on x
    FT on Huawei / SMIC Ascend 910C chip yields: doubled to 40% and now targeting 60%. TSMC H100 yield is ~60% ? When I was in Shanghai I had dinner with one of the top SMIC guys involved with leading edge chip fabrication. The team has a big Taiwanese component with experience at [i…
  • @teortaxestex @teortaxestex on x
    > Ascend 910C achieving a 40% yield, up from 20% a year ago. > plans to further improve yields to 60% > plans to produce 100K Ascend 910C, 300K 910B chips this year That's like 12K wafers, 1000 WPM. They're claimed to have 30K WPM for N7. Numbers don't work out. @dylan522p