California DMV: a total of 4.5M autonomous vehicle test miles were logged in 2024, down 50% YoY, with driverless testing falling 83% YoY to just 552,895 miles
1. Waymo is now a robotaxi operator in California, more than a tester. — 2. GM shut down Cruise. — I'd love to see a comparison of these 2024 numbers against other states and countries. … Forums: r/SelfDrivingCars : Autonomous vehicle testing in California dropped 50%. Here's why
Context & Ripple Effects
California DMV disclosures have long been a visible benchmark for the sector: Waymo and GM previously led the state’s reported testing activity in the 2018 reports.
The 2024 decline follows Cruise’s pause of driverless operations after its California permit suspension, while Waymo’s role has shifted from testing toward operating a robotaxi service. That makes test-mile totals a less complete proxy for autonomous-vehicle activity than they once were.
First-order effects
- California’s reported autonomous test-mile activity contracted sharply in 2024, with the largest drop in driverless testing.
- GM’s shutdown of Cruise removes a major contributor to the testing ecosystem, while Waymo’s operational model means some activity is no longer captured as testing.
Second-order effects
- Comparisons based on California test miles become harder to interpret: a lower total can reflect operator exits and commercialization, not only a reduction in technical development.
- Remaining developers and observers have less reason to treat DMV testing-mile disclosures as a standalone competitive scoreboard, especially for driverless programs.
Third-order effects
- If more developers transition from permits and testing into commercial operations—or leave the market—public testing metrics will increasingly describe the pre-deployment pipeline rather than the scale of autonomous services.
- California’s AV market may become more concentrated around operators able to sustain both regulatory compliance and commercial service, though state mileage data alone cannot establish the degree of concentration.
The trend: Autonomous driving is moving from a testing-mile race toward a split between scaled commercial operators and programs that retreat or consolidate.