eMarketer expects Instagram to hit $32B in US ad revenue in 2025, or 50% of Meta's ad sales; filings: Instagram was ~30% of Meta's global business in early 2022
- Video-sharing app estimated to reach $32 billion in ad revenue — Instagram users spend majority of their time watching videos
Context & Ripple Effects
Instagram’s monetization has expanded from roughly $20 billion in advertising in 2019 to the revenue levels disclosed in FTC case filings covering 2020 through the first half of 2022. The new US forecast indicates that the service is becoming a still larger part of Meta’s advertising engine.
The estimate also ties Meta’s revenue mix more closely to how Instagram monetizes video viewing, rather than treating the app as a secondary social product.
First-order effects
- Meta gains a clearer basis to prioritize Instagram’s video inventory, ad products and sales execution as the platform approaches half of its projected US ad sales.
- Advertisers seeking Meta reach face an Instagram-led mix, with video placements becoming central to where their Meta budgets are delivered.
Second-order effects
- Competing video and social platforms will have greater incentive to defend advertiser budgets with comparable short-form video inventory, measurement and pricing.
- A larger Instagram contribution raises the commercial importance of creators and video publishers whose output sustains engagement and ad supply on the platform.
Third-order effects
- If this mix persists, Meta’s growth and operating priorities will become more concentrated around a single video-led advertising surface, increasing the strategic weight of Instagram within the company.
- The pattern reinforces platform gatekeeper leverage: a small number of large feeds can increasingly determine how video attention is converted into advertising demand.
The trend: Social platforms are shifting ad monetization toward video-first feeds, concentrating more of their parent companies’ advertising revenue in a few high-engagement products.