IDC expects global smartphone shipments to grow 6.2% YoY to 1.24B units in 2024, due to Android shipments growing 7.6% YoY and iPhone shipments growing 0.4% YoY
Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 6.2% year-over-year in 2024 to 1.24 billion units, according …
Context & Ripple Effects
IDC's outlook follows a first quarter in which global shipments rose while iPhone volumes fell and Samsung regained the top position; Xiaomi's rapid first-quarter growth also showed that the recovery was not evenly distributed across vendors.
The projected 2024 total remains below IDC's 1.37 billion-unit 2021 shipment forecast, underscoring that a return to annual growth does not by itself restore the market's earlier volume level.
First-order effects
- IDC's forecast puts Android at the center of 2024 unit growth, while iPhone shipments are expected to be broadly flat; Android handset makers have the clearer near-term volume tailwind.
- Apple would participate less in the forecast recovery than the Android ecosystem, extending the contrast with its first-quarter iPhone shipment decline.
Second-order effects
- Competition for the additional Android volume is likely to sharpen among vendors, particularly after Samsung's first-quarter leadership recovery and Xiaomi's strong growth.
- A faster-growing Android base gives the platform more influence over the industry's unit mix, even if overall smartphone demand improves for both major ecosystems.
Third-order effects
- If the gap between Android and iPhone shipment growth persists, global handset expansion will depend more on Android vendors' ability to win replacement demand than on Apple-led volume growth.
- The forecast points to a market in which modest aggregate recovery can coexist with diverging platform performance, making vendor and ecosystem mix more consequential than headline shipment growth alone.
The trend: Smartphone demand is recovering unevenly, with Android-led volume growth reshaping the competitive balance inside a still-mature global market.