How Waymo is converting locals and attracting tourists in San Francisco to pull ahead in the robotaxi race, with ~300 vehicles in the city and global ambitions
Just last year, residents wanted to get rid of robotaxis. Now locals and tourists can't get enough. Bluesky: @kimoco.bsky.social . X: @lessin , @ajlamesa , and @paoloigna1 LinkedIn: Mike Schroepfer , Jeff Farrah , Meghan Bobrowsky , and Joe White . Forums: r/SelfDrivingCars Bluesky: Kim / @kimoco.bsky.social : P.S these damned cars are flooding the streets, making traffic worse! And the locals are not fans in large numbers. X: @lessin : It is bananas that Waymo only has 300 cars in SF? I feel like that means every time i go to the city i see 5-10% of the fleet easily... [image] Anthony LaMesa / @ajlamesa : The product is better than Uber. https://www.wsj.com/... Paolo Ignazio Marong / @paoloigna1 : Just last year, San Francisco residents wanted to get rid of robotaxis. Now locals and tourists can't get enough. https://www.wsj.com/... via @WSJ LinkedIn: Mike Schroepfer : It takes one ride in a Waymo to convert most skeptics. Jeff Farrah : The jury is in: consumers love autonomous vehicles for the safety, privacy, and convenience. AVs are winning fans as they reach more Americans. … Meghan Bobrowsky : In just a year, Waymo's self-driving cars has gone from hated in San Francisco to a part of daily life. … Joe White : Self driving vehicle skeptics - me included - should read this piece from the WSJ about Waymo's success in San Francisco. Rides up 10X since last year. … Forums: r/SelfDrivingCars : WSJ: How San Francisco Learned to Love Self-Driving Cars
Context & Ripple Effects
San Francisco moved from a fight over whether driverless cabs should operate broadly to a state-approved 24/7 service framework in 2023. Waymo then received approval to extend paid driverless service beyond the city into parts of Los Angeles and the Peninsula in its California service expansion.
The company’s reported paid-trip volume had already risen above 50,000 weekly rides across its operating cities in May 2024, providing a backdrop for the reported shift in local sentiment. This story matters because it ties that scale to adoption in a market where robotaxi deployment had faced conspicuous resistance.
First-order effects
- Waymo’s roughly 300-vehicle San Francisco fleet gains a stronger demand signal from both residents and visitors, reinforcing its position in the local robotaxi market.
- A service that becomes routine for riders can turn product experience into a practical advantage; earlier rider accounts said the technology quickly felt normal, despite edge-case limitations such as interpreting a traffic officer’s signals.
Second-order effects
- Higher acceptance and repeat usage raise the competitive bar for conventional ride-hailing options in San Francisco, particularly on the experience riders perceive from an autonomous service.
- Operational growth also makes local street impacts more visible: traffic, curb access, and incident handling remain central to whether public support and regulatory tolerance keep pace with demand.
Third-order effects
- If usage continues to normalize, robotaxi competition will be shaped less by permission to launch than by the ability to sustain reliable, trusted service at fleet scale—a form of operational AI assurance.
- San Francisco’s experience could become an important reference point for other expansion markets, but persistent complaints about congestion or operational failures could still constrain the model through local political pressure.
The trend: Robotaxis are entering a commercialization phase in which repeated rider use and operational legitimacy, rather than technical novelty alone, determine who can scale.