Google plans to buy carbon removal credits from direct air capture provider Holocene for $100 per ton, far below current prices, for delivery by the early 2030s
Justine Calma / The Verge :
Context & Ripple Effects
Google's planned Holocene purchase extends its shift away from conventional offsets after it stopped buying carbon offsets and no longer maintained operational carbon neutrality, while retaining a 2030 net-zero objective.
The company has also used long-term clean-energy procurement, including offshore-wind power purchase agreements in the Netherlands. This deal applies that buyer-commitment model to carbon removal, with delivery deferred to the early 2030s.
First-order effects
- Google sets a prospective $100-per-ton benchmark for Holocene direct-air-capture credits, far below prevailing prices cited in the report, while pushing delivery risk and execution into the early 2030s.
- Holocene gains a high-profile prospective customer and a price signal around which it can plan future removal capacity, subject to delivering credits on the agreed timeline.
Second-order effects
- Other carbon-removal suppliers face a clearer demand-side challenge: offer buyers credible pathways toward lower-cost, future delivery rather than rely solely on current credit pricing.
- Corporate climate buyers may increasingly separate near-term emissions accounting from longer-dated removal procurement, using advance commitments to secure potential future supply.
Third-order effects
- If similar commitments accumulate, carbon removal could develop around long-term offtake contracts that finance capacity before delivery, much as corporate power purchasing has supported clean-energy projects.
- The key structural test will be whether providers can deliver verifiable removals at contracted prices; failure would leave buyers with less dependable supply for net-zero plans.
The trend: Large technology buyers are using forward carbon-removal purchases to try to turn expensive early-stage climate capacity into a contract-backed market.