Around 40% of iPads in use will not be supported by iOS 10, according to Localytics, whereas all but the first-gen iPad supported iOS 9
Adrian Kingsley-Hughes / ZDNet :
Context & Ripple Effects
The iPad installed base has been aging into a problem. After Q3 2015 iPad sales fell to a four-year low and Apple responded in March 2016 with the 9.7-inch iPad Pro aimed at pro buyers, Localytics' new estimate quantifies the other side of that ledger: roughly 40% of iPads actually in use will not run iOS 10, whereas iOS 9 supported everything except the original iPad.
That gap matters because it previews how Apple manages its tablet fleet. A year later, the sales slump gave way to a harder cut when iOS 11 dropped 32-bit devices outright, stranding iPhone 5, 5C, and iPad 4 — making this Localytics figure the first clear signal of an obsolescence wave rather than a one-off.
First-order effects
- Owners of pre-64-bit iPads — the bulk of that 40% — lose the iOS 10 upgrade path, ending feature updates and leaving them on an aging app and security baseline.
- Apple's support story shifts from 'every recent iPad gets the update' to a split fleet, changing what buyers of used or older iPads can expect from the device.
Second-order effects
- A stranded installed base feeds the replacement cycle just as Apple needs it: after the four-year-low quarter, forced obsolescence pushes upgrade demand toward the new iPad Pro line rather than letting old units linger.
- Developers and accessory makers face a shrinking addressable base on legacy iPads, tilting app optimization toward the newer devices Mixpanel shows adopting iOS 10 fastest (48% within two weeks).
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds — iOS 10 stranding ~40% of iPads, then iOS 11 cutting off 32-bit hardware entirely — annual OS releases become Apple's de facto retirement mechanism for tablets, shortening effective device lifespans industry-wide.
- That dynamic pressures regulators and buyers to scrutinize software-driven obsolescence, and pushes competitors to differentiate on longer support windows as a selling point against the iPad.
The trend: Apple's yearly iOS cadence is turning into the primary mechanism by which its tablet installed base is retired, converting software support policy into hardware replacement demand.