Sources: Verizon and others are expected to bid $2B to $3B for Yahoo's core business, less than $4B to $8B figure reported earlier
Friday, May 20 Maya Kosoff / Vanity Fair : Bids for Yahoo Are Way Lower than Expected Martha DeGrasse / RCR Wireless News : Yahoo bids, Frontier refunds, 5G predictions ... 5 things to know today Ethan Baron / SiliconBeat : Yahoo bids are lower than expected: report Greg Sterling / Marketing Land : Yahoo bids coming in at 50 percent less than expected — [report] Teresa Rivas / Tech Trader Daily : Yahoo Slips As WSJ Reports Bids May Be Below Expectations Todd R. Weiss / eWeek : Yahoo's Potential Price Tag Could Be Down to $2B to $3B: Report Reinhardt Krause / Investor's Business Daily : Yahoo Could Fetch Less Than Expected; Stock Falls Noah Kulwin / Recode : Google I/O Day Two: Chromebooks, artificial intelligence and a virtual reality plan takes shape Abhimanyu Ghoshal / The Next Web : Yahoo's latest iOS app brings you esports news and scores Amie Tsang / New York Times : Morning Agenda: Push Continues on Insider Trading Cases Despite Limits on Prosecutors David Lieberman / Deadline : Yahoo Bids Coming In Lower Than Expected Ahead Of New Round: Report Tweets: Scott Austin / @scottmaustin : Hard to believe that for a moment, in January 2000, Yahoo was valued at $110 billion. https://twitter.com/... Scott Austin / @scottmaustin : Verizon/bidders price Yahoo at just $2B-$3B AOL and all its baggage sold for $4.4B By @dmac1 @Ryan_Knutsonhttp://www.wsj.com/ articles/yahoo-suitors-expected-to-bid- 2-billion-to-3-billion-below-past- indications-1463713093 ... Mike Davidson / @mikeindustries : Probably worth it, as long as it includes Yahoo Pipes. http://twitter.com/... See also Mediagazer
Context & Ripple Effects
The auction for Yahoo's core business is repricing downward. After an April report that Verizon planned a bid and Google was considering one, expectations sat at $4B-$8B — but Yahoo entered the sale with fundamentals pointing the wrong way, having just reported Q1 revenue of $1.087B, down 12% year over year. Now sources tell the WSJ that Verizon and other bidders are expected to offer only $2B-$3B, roughly half the earlier range.
The gap between expectation and offer is the story: buyers are pricing Yahoo's core as a declining asset, not a turnaround. The next data point came weeks later, when Recode reported [[a:870402|Verizon raising to $3-3.5B while other $5B+ bids bundled in the patent portfolio and real estate]] — evidence that bidders see the parts as worth more than the whole.
First-order effects
- Yahoo's board faces materially lower proceeds than the $4B-$8B figures reported earlier, with Verizon positioned as the leading bidder at $2B-$3B.
- Google's reported interest gives Yahoo a second credible buyer, but neither is bidding up to prior expectations, weakening Yahoo's leverage in the process.
Second-order effects
- Buyers begin unbundling the asset: by June, the strongest bids attach value to Yahoo's patent portfolio and real estate separately from the core operating business, shifting the negotiation toward asset-by-asset pricing.
- A winning Verizon bid would fold Yahoo alongside AOL, giving the carrier two legacy web-media brands under one roof and pressuring remaining independent portal-era players on ad inventory and scale.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, distressed consumer-web businesses migrate into telecom balance sheets as content and advertising appendages, while their most liquid components — patents, property — get stripped and sold separately, capping what any future seller of a declining media brand can expect.
The trend: Legacy web-media assets are being absorbed by telecom carriers at falling prices, with buyers increasingly valuing the parts over the operating whole.