SemiAnalysis: Nvidia is set to sell $12B worth of H20 chips in China in 2024, or 1M+ units; Huawei expects to sell ~550,000 units of Ascend 910B chips in 2024
Chipmaker set to surpass China sales by local rival Huawei by selling product designed to fall outside of export restrictions
Context & Ripple Effects
Nvidia introduced the China-specific H20 through pre-orders earlier in the year, while specifications indicated Huawei’s 910B was stronger on some measures. A subsequent reported H20 price discount versus Huawei’s 910B showed that access to the market would depend on commercial positioning as well as chip performance.
The projected sales gap matters because it suggests Nvidia’s export-compliant product could retain substantial volume in China despite Huawei’s local alternative. It is an early measure of how far a tailored product can preserve an incumbent supplier’s position under trade constraints.
First-order effects
- Nvidia would maintain a much larger 2024 China AI-chip sales base than Huawei on the estimates, with more than 1 million H20 units versus roughly 550,000 Ascend 910B units.
- Huawei faces a more immediate challenge converting domestic demand into Ascend 910B shipments when an export-compliant Nvidia option is available at a reported discount to the competing Huawei chip.
Second-order effects
- Chinese AI infrastructure buyers gain a clearer two-vendor choice: Nvidia’s H20 ecosystem and Huawei’s domestic alternative, increasing pressure on both vendors’ pricing and product positioning.
- The H20’s volume would make China-specific, policy-constrained designs a meaningful part of Nvidia’s go-to-market strategy rather than a marginal workaround.
Third-order effects
- If this pattern persists, export controls may segment AI compute into region-specific product tiers rather than simply eliminate Chinese demand for US-designed chips.
- A durable local alternative would still matter strategically: competitive volume today can help Huawei build a supply base even if Nvidia initially leads in shipments.
The trend: AI-chip competition is shifting toward region-specific products, where export compliance, local sourcing, and software ecosystems jointly shape market share.