Micron reports Q3 revenue up 82% YoY to $6.81B, vs. $6.67B est., a $332M net income, and forecasts Q4 revenue in line with est.; MU drops 6%+
but the stock slides Wajeeh Khan / Bitcoin Insider : Micron beats Street estimates in Q3 on continued AI demand Proactive : Micron 3Q earnings beat but shares tumble as revenue guidance fails to meet high expectations Jaskiran Singh / Seeking Alpha : Micron in charts: Revenue from DRAM continues its Q/Q growth streak in FQ3 (NASDAQ:MU) Ed Carson / Investor's Business Daily : Dow Jones Futures: Micron Dives Late On Earnings; Tesla, Amazon Break Out Reuters : Micron Technology beats estimates for third-quarter revenue on AI chip demand Ian King / Bloomberg : Micron Declines After Forecast Fails to Meet Lofty Expectations X: Gene Munster / @munster_gene : $MU is down 6% after earnings report. It was not a blow out enough quarter for the fast money to get incrementally more excited, so they're selling the stock. That said, the AI story is intact. They just reported 82% YoY growth and guided to 90% growth, which was inline with Manz / @notmrmanziel : We're back in a market where people are surprised a stock is -7% after being in line with expectations. Micron: +119% from this time last year. +60% YTD. These are priced for perfection. Eric Jhonsa / @ericjhonsa : $MU is saying the right things about HBM and 2025, though they generally fit with prior remarks. Of note: FY25 capex is expected to be a mid-30s % of revenue. Implies capex of ~$13B based on FY25 revenue consensus (possibly conservative), up from FY24's ~$8B. $AMAT $LRCX $ASML [image] Eric Jhonsa / @ericjhonsa : $MU guiding for FQ4 revenue of $7.6B (+/- $200M) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.08 (+/- $0.08), just a little above a consensus of $7.58B and $1.04 at the midpoints. Stock is down 6.5% AH for now. Not terrible numbers, but expectations and recent chasing of AI semis loom large. [image] @qwqiao : micron - the first ai-related semiconductor company to release their quarterly reports this earnings season - crushed expectations with decent forward guidance, but still got pwned after hours. think this tells u everything u need to know about how inflated market expectations @zerohedge : MICRON SAYS HIGH BANDWIDTH MEMORY SOLD OUT THROUGH 2025 MICRON SAYS RACE FOR ARTIFICAL GENERAL INTELLIGENCE WILL DRIVE ‘SIGNIFICANT GROWTH’ FOR DRAM AND NAND Amit / @amitisinvesting : BRO LOOK AT WHAT $MU MICRON JUST SAID ON EARNINGS: “Our HBM (High-bandwidth memory product) is sold out for 2025, with pricing already contracted for the overwhelming majority of our 2025 supply.” Stock recovering a little but this feels like a dip that may end up getting bought... Amit / @amitisinvesting : $MU Micron crushed earnings, but guidance was too light for the street given the stock was up 77% YTD. EPS $0.62 vs $0.53 expected✅ Revenue $6.81B vs. $6.67B expected✅ Down 8% AH [image] @thetranscript_ : Micron double beat but guidance in-line. CEO: “Robust AI demand and strong execution enabled Micron to drive 17% sequential revenue growth, exceeding our guidance range in fiscal Q3” $MU: -5.2% AH [image] @microntech : Today, Micron reported our Q3 FY24 financial results. Learn more: https://investors.micron.com/ ... [image] Forums: r/NvidiaStock : Micron shares slide after revenue forecast fails to top estimates
Context & Ripple Effects
Micron entered the quarter after a March revenue beat and above-consensus Q3 outlook tied to AI-hardware demand, making this report a test of whether that recovery could keep outrunning expectations. The company did beat its Q3 target, but the market focused on the less-expansive Q4 outlook.
The result also sits within a widening gap between broad memory recovery and the premium AI-memory segment: Micron says its HBM supply is sold out through 2025, with most of that supply already under contract.
First-order effects
- Micron delivered $6.81 billion in Q3 revenue and returned to $332 million in net income, while its Q4 revenue outlook landed roughly in line with estimates rather than extending the upside implied by its prior above-estimate Q3 forecast.
- Shares fell more than 6% as investors repriced near-term growth expectations despite the quarterly revenue beat and continuing AI-related demand.
Second-order effects
- An in-line forecast raises the bar for subsequent memory earnings: investors will distinguish between a cyclical DRAM recovery and AI-linked products that can sustain pricing and growth.
- Micron's sold-out HBM position and contracted supply shift more attention to capacity execution; its planned increase in capital spending makes production expansion a central constraint on translating demand into revenue.
Third-order effects
- If AI-memory demand remains supply-constrained, the memory industry could become more segmented, with HBM economics and capacity allocation mattering more than headline DRAM revenue growth.
- The proposed rise in capex points to a longer AI-infrastructure investment cycle, though the durability of that cycle will depend on whether end-customer demand continues to justify new memory capacity.
The trend: AI infrastructure demand is turning high-bandwidth memory from a cyclical commodity exposure into a capacity- and contract-driven growth segment.