A look at a potential TikTok US sale, with an estimated valuation of $100B, or $40B without the algorithm, as Steven Mnuchin and others form investor groups
- TikTok's U.S. revenue reportedly was between $16 billion and $20 billion in 2023, but CEO Shou Zi Chew has said the company is in the red.
Axios
Context & Ripple Effects
A U.S. TikTok divestiture had already drawn investor interest in 2020, when prospective buyers discussed a far lower valuation range for a broader regional carve-out. The renewed interest comes as TikTok’s U.S. revenue reached a record $16B in 2023, while separate investor assessments said the platform was still loss-making.
Potential bidders led by Steven Mnuchin and other investor groups must price a U.S. TikTok business whose stated value changes sharply depending on whether the algorithm transfers.
ByteDance and TikTok would face a direct trade-off between retaining control of the recommendation technology and maximizing proceeds from a U.S. transaction.
Second-order effects
A buyer unable to obtain the algorithm would need to build, license, or adapt recommendation technology, making execution risk a material part of the bid rather than a post-deal detail.
The valuation debate gives rival social platforms and advertisers a clearer basis to assess whether a standalone TikTok could preserve audience engagement and ad-market leverage during a transition.
Third-order effects
If separation requirements become a recurring feature of cross-border platform ownership, algorithm ownership and operational independence could become distinct deal assets, rather than inseparable parts of a consumer app.
The episode points to a broader market in which politically sensitive platforms may be valued through jurisdiction-specific carve-outs, although the eventual terms would determine whether that model is viable.
The trend: Platform dealmaking is increasingly treating data, recommendation systems, and national operations as separable assets when ownership faces geopolitical scrutiny.
If the TikTok Ban forces the company to be sold to an American company with GOP-backers, considering Truth Social's failure, WOULDN'T a GOP-controlled TikTok be even more harmful than the Cambridge Analytica era Facebook? https://www.mercurynews.com/ ...
Ok I'll bite on @tiktok. It's clear Beijing has control over ByteDance which in turn controls TikTok. But they're not after data (easily available elsewhere) they want influence. TikTok is a media company and now Congress, perhaps unwittingly, is finally codifying into law tha…
One day after the US House of Representatives voted to force TikTok to divest from China or be banned, Donald Trump's former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin says he is putting together a group to buy TikTok. [video]
The first VC investment Steve Mnuchin made after leaving Treasury was an Israeli intel front called Cybereason that simulated cyberattacks canceling the US election/ declaration of martial law w DHS during the Trump admin. Mnuchin's now on its board https://techcrunch.com/...
Democrats: “TikTok is endangering young people and that's why we're going to force them to sell to Steve Mnuchin so he can use it to track and arrest pregnant teenagers and people searching for gender affirming care.”