Chinese smartphone sales declined 7% YoY in the first six weeks of 2024; Huawei rose 64% YoY while Apple fell 24% YoY, Oppo fell 29% YoY, and Vivo fell 15% YoY
- Growth: China's smartphone unit sales declined by 7% YoY during the first six weeks of 2024.
Context & Ripple Effects
China's handset market was already contracting in late 2023, when Huawei was the fastest-growing major vendor after the Mate 60 launch while Apple declined. This reading extends that Huawei-led competitive shift into the start of 2024.
The significance is relative performance in a shrinking market: Huawei's gain contrasts sharply with declines at Apple, Oppo and Vivo, indicating a rapid redistribution of demand rather than a broad market recovery.
First-order effects
- Huawei gains sales momentum in China despite a 7% market decline, while Apple, Oppo and Vivo each lose unit volume immediately.
- Apple's 24% decline and Oppo's 29% drop make them the most exposed named vendors in this early-2024 comparison; Vivo also contracts, though less sharply.
Second-order effects
- The divergent results intensify the contest for Chinese smartphone share: Huawei's growth compounds the momentum it showed after the Mate 60-driven rebound, forcing rivals to defend customers in a smaller market.
- A weakening Apple result is consistent with the later Q1 decline in iPhone sales and share, suggesting that Huawei's advance is becoming a material competitive issue rather than an isolated launch effect.
Third-order effects
- If this pattern persists, China's premium and upper-midrange handset market could be reorganized around a stronger Huawei and a less secure position for Apple, alongside heavier pressure on domestic Android rivals.
- Repeated market contraction would make share gains increasingly dependent on taking customers from rivals, raising the importance of product cycles and vendor differentiation over industry-wide unit growth.
The trend: China's smartphone market is shifting from broad replacement demand toward a tougher share battle in which Huawei's resurgence coincides with pressure on Apple and domestic peers.