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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Microsoft reports Q2 Intelligent Cloud revenue up 20% YoY to $25.88B, vs. $25.29B est., with Azure and other cloud services revenue up 30% YoY, vs. 27.7% est.

Jordan Novet / CNBC :

CNBC Jordan Novet

Context & Ripple Effects

Microsoft entered the quarter after Q1 Intelligent Cloud growth of 19% and a 29% increase in Azure and other cloud services. This result extends that momentum, with both the segment and Azure growth exceeding the estimates cited in the report.

The performance also sits within a longer expansion of the business: Intelligent Cloud revenue was $21.5B a year earlier, when Azure and other cloud services grew 31%. A subsequent Q3 revenue increase to $26.71B indicates that cloud remained Microsoft’s central growth engine through the fiscal year.

First-order effects

  • Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment beats the cited revenue estimate, while Azure and other cloud services grow faster than expected, strengthening the cloud business’s near-term contribution to company results.
  • The result gives Azure a stronger operating benchmark after Q1, with reported growth moving from 29% to 30% year over year.

Second-order effects

  • A sustained Azure growth rate around 30% raises the competitive bar for cloud providers seeking enterprise workloads, especially where buyers compare platform scale and service breadth.
  • For Microsoft, better-than-expected cloud growth increases the strategic importance of converting demand into recurring cloud consumption rather than relying on slower-moving product categories.

Third-order effects

  • The pattern points to cloud infrastructure becoming an increasingly concentrated source of large-platform revenue growth, making usage-based compute monetization more consequential to vendor strategy.
  • If growth remains durable across quarters, competition is likely to focus less on simply adding cloud availability and more on retaining workloads and expanding customer consumption on each platform.

The trend: This is one data point in the compute monetization pivot, in which large technology platforms seek durable growth through expanding recurring cloud-service consumption.

Discussion

  • @altcap Brad Gerstner on x
    People still think AI is a Silicon Valley created fad / hype cycle? No doubt there are pretenders - but as we have been saying - the impact of AI on human progress will be bigger than the internet itself. @BG2Pod 🚀🚀
  • @jaminball Jamin Ball on x
    Azure at a ~$74B run rate growing 28% constant currency Quarterly YoY growth trends below. Also shown estimated growth ex AI services. Not all software co's have the AI accelerant Microsoft does! In last 3 quarters AI Services run rate has gone ~$500m > ~$2B > ~$4B $MSFT [image]
  • @nikolaevra Ruslan Nikolaev on x
    @jaminball Keep in mind that they basically paid for all this AI Service growth themselves by giving $10B to OpenAI, that is now buying their AI compute right back from them...