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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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With high-stakes elections in 2024, some experts are worried that a piece of disinformation potentially involving a deepfake might soon have a calamitous impact

It's merely a matter of time until disinformation leads to calamity via @FT https://giftarticle.ft.com/... @ftweekend : 'With high-stakes elections taking place across the world this year, deepfake experts are concerned that it's only a matter of time before a clever, well-timed piece of disinformation has a calamitous impact.' Read @timharford's feature for @ftmag https://www.ft.com/... Niki Blasina / @nikiblasina : ‘Deepfakes, like all fakes, raise the possibility that people will mistake a lie for the truth, but they also create space for us to mistake the truth for a lie’ A deep dive into deepfakes & our post-truth hellscape, by the always excellent @TimHarford: https://www.ft.com/... Forums: Msmash / Slashdot : AI Startup Bans Account Blamed for Biden Audio Deepfake See also Mediagazer

Financial Times Tim Harford

Context & Ripple Effects

The risk has been building as synthetic audio and video tools became easier to make and circulate; related coverage documented their potential to undermine elections and the later spread of cheap AI-generated political material in Bangladesh ahead of its vote.

The concern is not only that a fabricated clip may be believed. As convincing deepfakes became more common, they also created a “liar’s dividend,” in which authentic evidence can be dismissed as fake. Regulation has remained uneven despite China’s deepfake rules and wider free-speech constraints.

First-order effects

  • Campaigns, election administrators and newsrooms face a narrower window to verify viral audio or video before it can shape public understanding of a contest.
  • A purported deepfake can damage trust whether it is accepted as genuine or used to cast doubt on authentic material, raising the stakes for rapid attribution and correction.

Second-order effects

  • Platforms and AI providers come under greater pressure to limit coordinated distribution and respond to misuse, as illustrated by an account ban tied to the circulation of a Biden audio deepfake.
  • Political communicators may need stronger evidence trails for authentic recordings, while fact-checkers and journalists must devote more capacity to verification during fast-moving events.

Third-order effects

  • If synthetic political media continues to scale, credibility may shift from judging a clip by appearance to relying on provenance, trusted publishers and verification systems.
  • The pattern strengthens the case for governance that addresses both creation and distribution of deceptive media, though rules will continue to contend with free-speech concerns and uneven enforcement.

The trend: Elections are becoming an early stress test for whether information ecosystems can preserve trust as synthetic media lowers the cost of plausible deception.

Discussion

  • @daveleebbg Dave Lee on threads
    “Bloomberg ... tried to determine which technology was used to create it.  Those efforts included running it through ElevenLabs own ‘speech classifier’ tool, which is supposed to show if the audio was created using artificial intelligence and ElevenLabs' technology. …
  • @mrbrownsir Matt Brown on x
    “What is the deeper problem, people falling for malicious nonsense, or people refusing to believe in carefully reported journalism? But it's certainly possible that universal cynicism is a cure worse than the disease.” https://www.ft.com/...
  • @glentarman Glen Tarman on x
    Fakes, forgeries and the meaning of meaning in our post-truth era - must-read piece by @TimHarford on our changing information environment - by way of art - and what it may mean for our politics & beyond, for you, me and everyone via @ft https://www.ft.com/...
  • @lukolejnik @lukolejnik on x
    “If we're shown enough faked videos of atrocities, or of political gaffes, we might start to dismiss real videos of atrocities and real videos of political gaffes, too.” https://www.ft.com/... [image]
  • @alanhickslondon Alan Hicks on x
    Are AI Fakes and Hallucinations any different to Eric Hebborn adding cats to increase value? Wherever there's enough money... He “was being asked to “restore” blank sheets of paper, or to “find” lost preparatory sketches by old masters.” Excellent article, well worth reading:
  • @timharford Tim Harford on x
    Hebborn was a faker on a grand scale - but what really captured my imagination were his fake fakes: claiming to have forged a Brueghel, a Da Vinci, and nobody is entirely sure whether he did or not... (My money is against the Da Vinci - but who knows?)
  • @johngapper John Gapper on x
    Fascinating piece by @TimHarford about the murky world of deepfakes and what history shows https://twitter.com/...
  • @zemedeneh @zemedeneh on x
    Artificial Intelligence (AI) Fakes, forgeries and the “meaning” of “meaning” in our post-truth era. It's only a matter of time before disinformation leads to disaster. Via @FT MY VIEW: AI is topic No. 1 at every major global gathering the past few months from @Davos to @FIIKSA...…
  • @bakerluke Luke Baker on x
    Wonderful, must-read piece — It's merely a matter of time until disinformation leads to calamity via @FT https://giftarticle.ft.com/...
  • @ftweekend @ftweekend on x
    'With high-stakes elections taking place across the world this year, deepfake experts are concerned that it's only a matter of time before a clever, well-timed piece of disinformation has a calamitous impact.' Read @timharford's feature for @ftmag https://www.ft.com/...
  • @nikiblasina Niki Blasina on x
    ‘Deepfakes, like all fakes, raise the possibility that people will mistake a lie for the truth, but they also create space for us to mistake the truth for a lie’ A deep dive into deepfakes & our post-truth hellscape, by the always excellent @TimHarford: https://www.ft.com/...