Experts warn against unrealistic expectations for quantum computers, citing the challenges in making fault-tolerant systems, qubits' slow operating speeds, more
That's the message coming from a small but vocal set of prominent skeptics in and around the emerging quantum computing industry. — Fault tolerance and slow operating speeds remain difficult challenges. … @failedLyndonLaRouchite@mas.to : @Techmeme — Predictions , and most particularly predictions about the future, are usually wrong — I mean, geez, give it a rest on the AI/QC/whatever won't amount to much — maybe it won't; maybe it will but no one has the slightest idea or insight into what will happen in the next 20 years X: Paulo Nussenzveig / @pnussen : We need skepticism to counter all the hype. There's a lot of promise in quantum technologies: it shouldn't be thrown away together with the hype. Grady Booch / @grady_booch : The hype abides. https://spectrum.ieee.org/... Seth Miller / @wandrme : Yeah, we should definitely trust the company that burned billions trying to make the Metaverse happen on what the future of computing will be. 🙄 Ben Goertzel / @bengoertzel : An amusing hallmark of this “late pre-Singularity era” is that saying some amazing radical new technology is 10 years off from practical application counts you as a pessimistic conservative ... Thinking of this article on quantum computing, but the same applies ofc to AGI:... Tren Griffin / @trengriffin : What we have learned over the past few decades is that progress isn't always linear. Expect the unexpected. Quantum computing is an example. https://spectrum.ieee.org/... Maxim Ziatdinov / @maximziatdinov : Love seeing Yann LeCun recently pouring cold water on all the bulls**it like AGI and quantum computers. Michael J. Biercuk / @mjbiercuk : Meta had never invested in #QuantumComputing . These statements are all consistent with a thesis that is the orgs right to hold. It isn't, however, any different than it had been for years... “meta continues to not invest in QC” isn't as headline grabbing 🤷♂️ Tren Griffin / @trengriffin : My prediction about quantum computing is that there will be an exponential increase in IBM press releases. https://thequantuminsider.com/ ... Hrant Gharibyan / @qhrant : Quantum has been in the winter for decades. One could say we are approaching the spring with progress in hardware and error correction. Shahin Khan / @shahinkhan : @HPC_Guru ... Those in quantum computing know why they are participating and where it is. Potential users and funders have their own realities, for some it makes sense to get engaged now, others can wait. Nobody's misled or has excuses if they claim to be. John Preskill / @preskill : “The goal of airing some skepticism, [Matthias] Troyer says, is not to diminish interest in the field, but to ensure that researchers are focused on the most promising applications of quantum computing with the greatest chance of impact.” https://spectrum.ieee.org/... Lance Fortnow / @fortnow : A coal in quantum computing's stocking? https://spectrum.ieee.org/... Deep Jariwala / @deep29jariwala : Some good points and hard truths https://spectrum.ieee.org/... Matthew D Cory / @stirner4potus : I'm apparently one of the high-cultural referees of physics. IEEE finally admits we have theoretical and fundamental arguments prior to any engineering. Even the skeptics are too stupid to understand us. Dykanov, Mike Price and myself KNOW they won't work. https://spectrum.ieee.org/... Shahriyar Gourgi / @shahriyargourgi : Quantum Computing has seen a lot of hype in recent years. Now it's the skeptics and doubters' turn. Meta's YannLeCun, Microsoft, Scott Aaronson, and others sound off on the case for arched eyebrows about the qubit in 2024. https://spectrum.ieee.org/... LinkedIn: Lisa Gus : Major reality check for #quantum, raining my own parade. If the experts are to be believed, the quantum revolution may be less revolutionary and more gradual evolution. … Fernando Osório : Quantum computers and mainly Quantum A.I. is pure Hype and Sci-Fi. Not real. — Now, who is saying that is the “Turing Award” Yann LeCun (I was saying that for a long, long time). … Ronjon Nag : Need a million Qubits to do anything useful - I think we are around 400 at the moment. So maybe in 10 years we will be 10 years away … Mattia Fiorentini : Yann LeCun is a great scientist, especially in a field such as ML were research and engineering mix so much. … Daniel : Move over Quantum. Your hype cycle ended two years ago. We are too busy with Generative AI's hype cycle right now to respond. Yann LeCun : Winter is coming in quantum computing ? — “Meta's head of AI research Yann LeCun recently made headlines after pouring cold water on the prospect … Forums: Hacker News : Quantum computing's reality check Slashdot : Quantum Computing Gets a ‘Hard, Cold Reality Check’
Context & Ripple Effects
Quantum computing coverage had progressed from an overview of competing hardware approaches to a search for near-term uses, including a focus on machine-learning applications. This warning re-centers the discussion on whether the underlying machines can meet those ambitions.
The skeptical view matters because fault tolerance and operating speed are not peripheral features: they determine whether experimental systems can deliver dependable computation at useful scale.
First-order effects
- Quantum-computing developers face more scrutiny over roadmaps that imply practical utility before fault tolerance and qubit-speed constraints are resolved.
- Companies evaluating quantum projects are pushed to distinguish research access and proofs of concept from workloads that require reliable, sustained performance.
Second-order effects
- Vendor messaging and buyer procurement are likely to put greater weight on error correction, system throughput, and reproducible performance rather than raw qubit counts or broad future claims.
- The gap between application experimentation and deployable hardware can extend sales cycles for quantum services and shift attention toward the components and engineering work needed to improve system reliability.
Third-order effects
- If these constraints persist, quantum computing will be valued less as a single near-term platform race and more as a layered systems-engineering problem, where economically useful logical qubits matter more than headline hardware metrics.
- The sector may develop a sharper divide between credible technical milestones and promotional timelines; the pace of that separation remains contingent on progress in fault-tolerant architectures.
The trend: Quantum computing is entering a credibility phase in which commercial expectations increasingly hinge on the economics and performance of fault-tolerant systems, not simply demonstrations of physical qubits.