Air cargo and logistics executives say booming demand in Western markets for goods sold by Chinese companies like Temu and Shein is buoying air freight rates
Context & Ripple Effects
This follows evidence that cross-border e-commerce was becoming an outsized contributor to China’s export flow: e-commerce exports grew while overall exports declined in the first half of 2023. The freight market effect shows that the platforms’ growth was also reshaping the physical distribution layer, not only online retail.
It extends an earlier logistics playbook in which China-to-consumer marketplaces were building their own global freight networks as international delivery economics changed. Here, the relevant constraint is air-cargo capacity and its price.
First-order effects
- Western orders for Temu, Shein, and similar Chinese sellers increase demand for air-cargo space, supporting freight rates and benefiting logistics providers serving those lanes.
- The platforms’ fulfilment economics become more exposed to air-shipping prices, creating immediate pressure to balance fast delivery against their low-price positioning.
Second-order effects
- Higher demand for air capacity can force other shippers on the same routes to pay more or accept less capacity, particularly during periods of tight supply.
- Suppliers already operating with razor-thin margins in Shein and Temu’s supply chains have less room to absorb logistics-cost increases, strengthening incentives to optimize inventory and shipment timing.
Third-order effects
- If direct-from-China retail demand remains large, air freight becomes a more strategic part of marketplace competition, encouraging platforms and logistics partners to secure capacity rather than treat shipping as a commoditized back-end service.
- The pattern points to cross-border e-commerce increasingly linking consumer-discount strategies to transport-market volatility; whether that persists depends on demand and the platforms’ ability to shift volumes across routes or modes.
The trend: Chinese cross-border marketplaces are turning rapid, low-cost consumer delivery into a meaningful source of demand—and pricing power—for international logistics networks.