Data.ai and IDC expect consumers to spend $108B on mobile games in 2023, or 55% of global spending on games, followed by $43B on consoles and $40B on PC/Mac
While the games industry isn't growing according to Data.ai and IDC's latest report, spending declines are leveling off faster than expected.
Context & Ripple Effects
Data.ai and IDC had previously projected mobile to contribute more than 61% of global game spending in 2022, following a period when weekly mobile-game spending ran well above pre-pandemic levels. This forecast shows mobile still leading the market, but at a lower 55% share as the broader games market stops expanding.
The report follows a 2022 decline in mobile-game spending even as downloads rose, making the faster-than-expected leveling-off more meaningful than a simple return to growth. Subsequent coverage also showed app spending recovering through non-game categories, while non-game spending outpaced the overall app market.
First-order effects
- Mobile publishers remain positioned in the largest consumer-spending segment, with the report assigning mobile $108B of 2023 game spending versus $43B for consoles and $40B for PC/Mac.
- A leveling decline gives game operators a less deteriorating revenue backdrop, but the report does not indicate a return to industry-wide growth.
Second-order effects
- Console and PC/Mac publishers face a market in which mobile's spending base remains substantially larger, reinforcing the value of mobile distribution and monetization alongside premium releases.
- Because game spending had fallen while downloads increased, publishers are likely to prioritize conversion and retention over download growth as they compete for a stabilizing pool of consumer spend.
Third-order effects
- If stabilization persists without a broad growth rebound, games may increasingly be organized around extracting more value from established player bases rather than assuming platform expansion will lift all publishers.
- Later evidence that new 2024 releases captured less than $4B of mobile spending is consistent with a more concentrated, incumbent-friendly mobile market, though this forecast alone cannot establish that outcome.
The trend: Mobile gaming is maturing from a pandemic-era expansion cycle into a large, slower-growth market where monetization of active players matters more than raw adoption.