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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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US smartphone shipments fell 24% YoY in Q2 2023, the third consecutive quarter of decline; Samsung shipments fell 37% YoY, and Apple's fell 6%

- Shipments declined YoY for the third consecutive quarter amid weak consumer demand.  — Android smartphone shipments declined 38% while Apple shipments fell 6% YoY.

Counterpoint Research Matthew Orf

Context & Ripple Effects

The US downturn followed a broader contraction: global smartphone shipments had already fallen 14.6% in Q1 2023, extending weakness seen in the prior year. In Q2 2022, Apple had posted its strongest second-quarter global share in a decade even as the overall market declined.

This US quarter makes that divergence sharper. Apple’s modest decline contrasts with the much steeper Android and Samsung drops, while later coverage shows the US market’s shipment slump persisted into a sixth consecutive quarter by Q1 2024.

First-order effects

  • Samsung and the wider Android segment absorb a disproportionate near-term volume hit in the US, with Samsung shipments down 37% and Android shipments down 38%.
  • Apple loses US shipments as well, but its 6% decline leaves it comparatively more resilient than Android rivals during weak consumer demand.

Second-order effects

  • The gap in shipment performance puts greater pressure on Samsung and other Android vendors to defend sell-through and share as Apple holds up better.
  • A longer demand downturn makes market-share outcomes more important than headline industry volume: Apple’s relative resilience can translate into a stronger competitive position even without shipment growth.

Third-order effects

  • If replacement demand remains weak, the US smartphone market may become increasingly shaped by relative brand durability rather than broad unit growth, favoring vendors that decline less in down cycles.
  • The persistence of the decline into 2024 suggests this was not an isolated quarter; the key structural question is whether the market settles into a lower-volume replacement cycle or eventually resumes growth.

The trend: This is one data point in a prolonged smartphone-demand contraction in which Apple has been more resilient than Android vendors in the US.

Discussion

  • @carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on threads
    US smartphone shipments fell 24% year over year.  What is truly impressive is that while Android handset shipments fell 38% year over year, iPhone only fell 6%.  Talk about in elastic demand.  Apple...
  • @danilo.redeem-tomorrow.com @danilo.redeem-tomorrow.com on bluesky
    The paradigm is mature.  People know what it is, they've had enough versions to know when they need to replace their device.  There's nothing left to add to the smartphone [embedded post]
  • @patrickmcgee_ Patrick McGee on x
    👀iPhone took 55% of the US smartphone market last quarter, up from 45% one year earlier. @CounterPointTR [image]
  • @counterpointtr @counterpointtr on x
    𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐝: US Smartphone Shipments Fall 24% YoY in Q2 2023 on Lower Upgrade Rates @MatthewOrf2 summarizes in a note the key highlights: - Shipments declined YoY for the third consecutive quarter amid weak consumer demand. - #Android smartphone shipments... [image]
  • r/technology r on reddit
    US iPhone market share jumps to 55% as Android shipments fall
  • r/GooglePixel r on reddit
    While Android as a whole continues to shrink in the US, Google Pixel keeps growing
  • r/Android r on reddit
    US Smartphone Shipments Fall 24% YoY in Q2 2023 on Lower Upgrade Rates