Twitter could become irrelevant if the trends driving Threads' success, like network effects, Elon Musk's self-inflicted wounds, and a different vibe, persist
@Techmeme https://techhub.social/... Christopher Mims / @mimsical@mastodon.social : There's been a lot of chatter over the past week about what's happening to Twitter's traffic and engagement, as well as that of Threads, and whether the two are related and ~what's it all mean for the future of social media~ — This is my attempt to cut through some of the noise, with actual data - and empirical observations. … Twitter: @gimmethetea : Damn even the Conservative papers are calling Twitter irrelevant now!! #twitter #elonmusk https://www.wsj.com/... Paul Armstrong / @paul__armstrong : Sad but true from @mims https://www.wsj.com/... @brokergreen : https://www.wsj.com/... The idea of buying a platform that has a near-perfect social media infrastructure and then just going in all guns blazing and killing everything in sight has consequences. Ser Jeff Garzik / @jgarzik : Threads: low density, low quality, vibes. Twitter: high density, chaotic quality. Are they really even competitors? Neil Mackenzie / @mknz : “One possible future: Musk gets the politics on Twitter, which is harder to monetize, and Zucker-berg takes over the stuff that advertisers are more comfortable placing their brands next to.” - @mims https://www.wsj.com/... Ser Jeff Garzik / @jgarzik : It feels this @WSJ article is a week old and stale. The content in my Twitter feed continues to be fresh, smart and relevant. The content in my threads feed continues to be vacuous and IQ draining. https://www.wsj.com/... @wsj : The trends driving Threads's success could coalesce into a diminished future for the 17-year-old microblogging service. https://www.wsj.com/... Threads: Benedict Evans / @benedictevans : My favourite Threads is people insisting that it will die if it doesn't IMMEDIATELY implement power Twitter features that even most Twitter users don't use, when the whole Meta thesis is that Twitter...
Context & Ripple Effects
The argument arrived after Twitter imposed unexplained “temporary” reading limits, giving Meta an opening to launch Threads into an unsettled user experience. The central issue is whether an early network-driven migration can weaken Twitter’s position before habits reset.
Related coverage also frames retention—not initial reach—as the test: Threads needed a compelling reason to return beyond Meta’s scale, and later reports pointed to difficulty attracting influencers and defining its purpose.
First-order effects
- Threads’ early momentum could pull attention and conversation toward Meta’s new text network, while Twitter faces a more immediate risk of lower engagement and weaker perceived relevance.
- Twitter’s product and leadership decisions become more consequential: disruptions that make the service less usable can accelerate switching when a credible alternative is available.
Second-order effects
- Meta must convert imported social connections into repeat usage; otherwise, the early network advantage may not translate into a durable creator or audience ecosystem.
- Twitter is pressured to stabilize the core experience and give users reasons to stay, while Threads is pressured to distinguish its community and product rather than rely on launch-scale adoption.
Third-order effects
- If users can move their social attention between large platforms quickly, text-based social networks may compete less on incumbent scale alone and more on trust, product reliability, and community identity.
- The later evidence of Threads’ difficulty attracting influencers suggests that network effects can open a migration window but do not by themselves settle the long-run market structure.
The trend: This is one data point in the contest between incumbent social graphs and challengers that use distribution advantages to turn product disruption into user migration.