South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are assessing the fallout from China's limits on chipmaking chemicals gallium and germanium; Japan imported $203.2M worth in 2022
Beijing's move to impose restrictions follows escalating US controls on technology — Trade officials were assessing the fallout …
Context & Ripple Effects
The restrictions add a raw-materials front to an Asian semiconductor supply chain that had already shown its exposure when Japan tightened controls on South Korean inputs, leaving chipmakers seeking alternative supplies in the 2019 materials-control dispute.
They also sit within a widening technology-control contest: regional chip stocks had already reacted to US restrictions on China, while Washington was later reported to be pressing allies for tighter China-facing controls. The later record of higher European gallium and germanium prices shows why import-dependent buyers were treating the move as more than a trade-policy signal.
First-order effects
- Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese trade and procurement teams must identify exposure to Chinese gallium and germanium supplies; Japan's 2022 import bill makes that dependency immediately material.
- Export restrictions can slow or complicate sourcing for manufacturers using these inputs, pushing buyers to review inventories, contracts and qualification requirements.
Second-order effects
- Buyers and processors will seek alternative sources and may compete for available material, increasing procurement costs and supply-chain friction; the subsequent rise in European prices is consistent with that pressure.
- The move strengthens the case for allied governments to treat upstream materials as part of semiconductor resilience, alongside the equipment and servicing controls under discussion in US outreach to Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands.
Third-order effects
- If reciprocal controls persist, semiconductor supply chains will be reorganized around politically acceptable sources of materials as well as fabs and equipment, raising the value of diversified and qualified supply.
- This is a test of export-control substitution: restrictions may redirect trade and investment, but specialized inputs can remain concentrated enough that substitution takes time and preserves leverage.
The trend: Technology competition is expanding from advanced chips and production tools into the critical materials that underpin semiconductor manufacturing.