Analysis: US spending on Temu was 20% higher than on Shein in May 2023; Apptopia: Temu has been the top iOS app on the US App Store during most days in 2023
Context & Ripple Effects
Temu's US surge is now measurable in dollars, not just downloads: after Pinduoduo's marketplace racked up 10.8M US installations in its first months post-launch and topped the download charts through December 2022, Apptopia's May 2023 data shows consumer spending on Temu running 20% ahead of Shein, with the app holding the top US iOS spot on most days of 2023.
The timing matters for Shein, which is pressing toward a delayed Hong Kong IPO at a reported ~$25B target — far below its $100B peak — after abandoning London and New York attempts amid growth pressure in the US and Europe. Temu is buying that lead with heavy subsidies: analysis pegged its losses at an average of $30 per order, meaning the spending gap reflects spend-to-win economics as much as organic preference.
First-order effects
- Shein's US growth problem sharpens: the rival it dismissed as a download-chart phenomenon is now out-earning it in its home market, directly undermining the growth story behind its Hong Kong listing pitch.
- Temu's top-iOS-app run converts Pinduoduo's launch blitz into sustained engagement, validating the subsidy model that produced those per-order losses.
Second-order effects
- Shein is forced to compete on Temu's terms — deeper discounting and heavier US marketing spend — just as its valuation compresses toward ~$25B, squeezing the margin of error for its IPO.
- Amazon and AliExpress face a new discount-shopping benchmark: Temu's engagement already outpaces both on time-per-user in later Apptopia data, pressuring the low-price end of US e-commerce.
Third-order effects
- If subsidized Chinese discount platforms keep trading losses for share, US value e-commerce consolidates into a spend-to-win race where scale of losses, not profitability, determines leadership — and the pattern's fragility showed when TikTok Shop passed both Shein and Temu in US sales by January 2025, suggesting the leader in this category is whoever owns the next distribution channel, not the deepest discounts.
The trend: US discount e-commerce is being reshaped by Chinese platforms buying share with subsidies, turning app-store dominance into a rotating battle among Temu, Shein, and social-commerce entrants.