Discussion

• @balajis Balaji on x

  I will take that bet. You buy 1 BTC. I will send $1M USD. This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k. The term is 90 days. All we need is a mutually agreed custodian who will still be there to settle this in the event of digital dollar devaluation. If someone knows how to do this…

• @jdcmedlock James Medlock on x

  I'll bet anyone $1 million dollars that the US does not enter hyperinflation

• @balajis Balaji on x

  @jdcmedlock Yes. Just moving money for the bet. We can do it via smart contract, but for simplicity old-fashioned escrow may work. The escrow person would need one BTC address and one ETH address (for the USDC). The assets would sit on chain for 90 days. If BTC < $1M in 90 days a…

• @saifedean @saifedean on x

  1- Even if @balajis is right on the extent of the banking crisis, a banking crisis is deflationary. When a bank goes bankrupt, the money supply is reduced. If ~all banks go bankrupt, then a majority of the money supply is destroyed & that would make hyperinflation less likely,...…

• @profplum99 Michael Green on x

  When @balajis tells you outright fabrications that are easily disproven, e.g. “Chinese banks are soaring as Western banks are failing”, please ask “Why are you reading this now?” He's not a dummy, which means he's selling ewe something. https://twitter.com/...

• @pourteaux Dennis on x

  The downside of this bet for #bitcoin itself, from @Noahpinion: https://twitter.com/...

• @saifedean @saifedean on x

  I feel dirty sounding bearish on bitcoin, but I do not think bitcoin will hit $1m in 90 days & and I do not think the dollar can possibly hyperinflate this quickly. My reasoning follows https://twitter.com/...

• @kofinas Demetri Kofinas on x

  When @balajis says he is “ideologically driven,” he's not lying. He and his comrades have an explicit political agenda to replace the Dollar and bring about a new world order run by a plutocratic elite of free agents who remain removed from the obligations of citizenship & place.…

• @matt_levine Matt Levine on x

  This newsletter is attractive for readers but, let us be clear, as far as I am concerned, this is an emergency Money Stuff. https://www.bloomberg.com/...

• @colin_fraser Colin Fraser on x

  SO MEDLOCK WAS JUST MAKING A SHITPOST ABOUT A SELF-HEDGING BET BUT BALAJI HAS BEEN DOOMPOSTING ABOUT HYPERINFLATION FOR MONTHS SO HE TOOK HIM UP AT WILDLY UNFAVORABLE TERMS BUT MEDLOCK DIDNT HAVE A BITCOIN ON HAND SO THIS PRO POKER PLAYER CAME IN TO BANKROLL THE BET AND https://t…

• @adamscochran Adam Cochran on x

  1/25 Let's breakdown @balajis $1M Bitcoin bet. And why I'd comfortably bet against it.

• @gainzy222 @gainzy222 on x

  My favorite part of the balaji bet is that he thinks btc goes 40x in 90 days and he wants to put up 7 figures in collateral in usdc Bruh even if you were right (ur not and ur bet is stupid and buying otm options is better)... you'd be losing 39M or whatever on every 1M you post

• @pourteaux Dennis on x

  i genuinely appreciate the crypto-right making disprovable predictions with clear time limits. the claims are far fetched in my view, but perhaps we all learn something when the dust settles.

• @noahpinion Noah Smith on x

  The reason Balaji's bet is bad for Bitcoin is that it immanetizes the eschaton. Bitcoin's value has always depended on the myth that SOMEDAY, fiat currencies will collapse. By setting a definite date with his bet, Balaji changed “someday” into a hard deadline. https://twitter.com…

• @rulebasedinvest chiente hsu, PhD on x

  . @balajis is not making a bet. He is putting up $1M to make a point: Simple strategy would be: Buy 2 BTC now (~$27K * 2) and put 1 BTC in the betting escrow If $BTC rises > $1M in 90 days, My PnL is my remaining 1BTC, which is > $1M If $BTC = 0 (worst case) My PnL is $1M.... htt…

• @yaboishagnasty @yaboishagnasty on x

  Starting to worry that this Medlock bet is gonna fall through

• @hsakatrades @hsakatrades on x

  The Balaji bet is the most expensive twitter ad ever bought.

• @jdcmedlock James Medlock on x

  The tax positivity staying in my body when I get a million dollars https://twitter.com/...

• @jdcmedlock James Medlock on x

  @YaBoiShagNasty Balaji remains committed to it, we just need to make sure we're doing it in a way that doesn't break any laws. I expect to have some sort of smart contract set up in the next 24 hours or so

• @tier10k @tier10k on x

  Google's Bard gives a 10% probability for Balaji's bet working out https://twitter.com/...

• @alecstapp Alec Stapp on x

  Come for Swiss bank merger explanation, stay for the Bitcoin bet commentary: https://www.bloomberg.com/... https://twitter.com/...