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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Sources: Twitter explored licensing music rights from three major labels but negotiations stalled after Elon Musk's takeover and were abandoned due to costs

Twitter didn't move forward with the music licensing deals because of costs, people with knowledge of the matter said.

New York Times

Context & Ripple Effects

Before the takeover, Twitter was in talks with three major labels to license music rights for the platform — a bet that sound could become part of the product. The extra financing Musk rounded up and the ~$13B of debt his deal layered on, now costing ~$1B a year in interest, changed that calculus: licensing fees are exactly the kind of discretionary spend a leveraged balance sheet cuts first.

The abandoned talks sit alongside another signal about how Musk values content: he cut off OpenAI's access to Twitter's data in December because he thought the $2M/year fee was too small, per sources — meaning Twitter wants to be paid for its own assets while declining to pay for anyone else's.

First-order effects

  • The three major labels lose a prospective new licensing customer, and any Twitter product feature built on licensed music dies before launch — pre-takeover plans stall once Musk takes over.

Second-order effects

  • Rival platforms that already carry licensed music keep an engagement edge Twitter chose not to buy into, while Twitter's own pivot toward charging for data access — as with the OpenAI cutoff — becomes the substitute growth lever.

Third-order effects

  • If leverage keeps dictating product scope, big-platform economics split into two camps: debt-light platforms that can afford content licensing, and leveraged ones that monetize proprietary data and cut paid-for content — narrowing what a heavily financed social platform can even attempt.

The trend: Acquisition debt is forcing social platforms to choose between buying third-party content rights and selling their own data, and leveraged Twitter is choosing the latter.

Discussion

  • @sisario Ben Sisario on x
    One of the odder stories of Elon-era Twitter chaos: the collapse of long-sought music licensing deals. Not for any negotiating impasse but because everybody got fired. w/ @RMac18 @kateconger https://www.nytimes.com/...
  • @robinivski Rob Forth on x
    Kicking cans down the road is just his way of doing business imo. Same at $Tsla where he has no other option than to keep building factories and pushing for growth, because he needs ever more revenue to offset yesterdays costs against. https://twitter.com/...
  • @riskreversal Dan Nathan on x
    Pro-Tip: the stock market has a way of sniffing out financial shell games and revealing a house of cards. “It's smoke and mirrors,” one former senior staffer said. “[Musk] is doing all this deferring of eventual costs, so he can do the victory lap” $TSLQ https://www.ft.com/...
  • @kateconger Kate Conger on x
    Twitter has been trying to secure music licensing deals that could help it compete with TikTok (or even resurrect Vine) but the effort fizzled under Elon Musk. @RMac18 @sisario https://www.nytimes.com/...