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Internal Twitter document: just ~180,000 US users paid for Blue and other subscriptions as of mid-January, implying ~$28M annual subscription revenue globally

Around 180,000 people in the U.S. were paying for subscriptions to Twitter, including Twitter Blue, as of mid-January …

The Information Erin Woo

Context & Ripple Effects

When Elon Musk took Twitter private, the stated plan was to shrink dependence on advertising — a business worth $4B in 2021 and $1.08B in a single quarter of 2022 — by charging users directly. Musk even floated charging most or all Twitter users a subscription, though internal estimates at the time warned Blue could lose roughly $6 per US user per month. January's $84 annual web plan was part of the push to convert free riders into payers.

This internal document puts a hard number on how that conversion is going: ~180,000 paying US subscribers as of mid-January, implying only ~$28M in annual subscription revenue globally. That lands between the earlier estimates — an analysis of ~140,000 paying accounts in November 2022 and [[a:838382|Sensor Tower's count of 385K+ mobile subscribers generating $11M in Blue's first three months]] — and it is a rounding error against ad revenue.

First-order effects

  • Twitter's subscription business is running at roughly $28M a year globally — well under 1% of the $4B ad revenue the company reported for 2021 — so the direct-pay pillar of Musk's monetization plan is not yet replacing anything.
  • The paying base is small enough that the earlier warning that Blue loses ~$6 per US user per month remains financially material: at ~180K US subscribers, subscription economics still depend on ad revenue to fund the platform.

Second-order effects

  • Retention, not acquisition, becomes the binding constraint: subsequent data showed only ~68,157 of the ~150K November Blue subscribers were still paying on April 30, and SimilarWeb found just 116,000 of 2.6M March promo-page visitors signed up — forcing discounts like the annual plan to lock in whoever converts.
  • With subscriptions this thin, Twitter has little leverage to de-emphasize advertising, keeping the ad business — and the advertiser relationships strained by moderation changes — central to revenue despite the subscription pivot.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds, the Musk-era pitch of charging most or all users is effectively dead as a near-term model, and Twitter's structure reverts to ads-plus-subscriptions rather than a subscription-first platform.
  • The churn and conversion numbers set a cautionary benchmark for the broader industry thesis that social platforms can swap ad revenue for consumer payments at scale — the gap between $28M and $4B is the number other platforms' subscription bets will be measured against.

The trend: Twitter's subscription pivot is colliding with the scale problem of consumer payments: at ~$28M a year against a $4B ad business, direct subscriptions are supplementing, not replacing, advertising as the platform's economic base.

Discussion

  • @frauenfelder@mastodon.cloud Mark Frauenfelder on mastodon
    Only 180,000 people in the U.S. are paying for Twitter Blue.  That covers about 1% of its annual debt.
  • @hunterwalk@mastodon.cloud @hunterwalk@mastodon.cloud on mastodon
    At this point Substack has more subscription revenue than Twitter
  • @MikeElgan@mastodon.social Mike Elgan on mastodon
    Only 180,000 people are paying for fake “verification” on Twitter.  That's less than $1.5 million per month.  Twitter is currently losing $250 million per month.  Musk is killing Twitter fast.  —  https://www.theinformation.com/ ...
  • @caseynewton@mastodon.social Casey Newton on mastodon
    Website dying https://www.theinformation.com/ ...
  • @erinkwoo Erin Woo on x
    scoop: as of mid-January, Twitter only had around 180k paid subscribers in the US, less than .2% of its monetizable monthly active users. with around 290k paying subscribers globally, this would imply just ~$28m in annual revenue — 1% of Twitter's total https://www.theinformation…
  • @amir Amir Efrati on x
    News flash: Twitter Blue still teeny. ⁦@erinkwoo⁩ https://www.theinformation.com/ ...
  • @polotek Marco Rogers on x
    He forgot to add any actual value to the paid subscription. It's an honest mistake. Any billionaire could've made it. https://twitter.com/...
  • @emilygorcenski Emily Gorcenski on x
    It takes a real business genius to turn a $1B company into a $30m company, but I'm sure that paid API access will make up the difference https://www.theinformation.com/ ...
  • @jbenton Joshua Benton on x
    Elon's Twitter has only 180,000 subscribers, total, in the United States. For context, the @nytimes ***added*** 2.04 million new paying digital subscribers in its most recent fiscal year, bringing its total to about 8.59 million. https://www.theinformation.com/ ...
  • @ryp__ Robert Young Pelton on x
    The people have spoken. https://www.theinformation.com/ ...
  • @guyendorekaiser Guy Endore-Kaiser on x
    I guess it's true what they say: you gotta spend money (44B) to make money (28m). https://twitter.com/...
  • @parismarx Paris Marx on x
    blowing up the advertiser relationships in favor of paid subscriptions isn't working out so well https://twitter.com/...
  • @oalexanderdk Oliver Alexander on x
    340k Twitter Blue Users and $28 million in annual revenue assuming people stay subscribed. Where is this new Twitter Blue creator revenue going to come from? Twitter is still in the red and now looking to start sharing its limited revenue. https://twitter.com/...
  • @joeyknish22 Joey Knish on x
    - The sub price is too expensive for what you get (basically nothing) - Almost no added features. Outside of a fraudulent blue check you get nothing else. Still see ads and no TL customization. - The usability and interface of the app in general is declining. https://twitter.com/…
  • @carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on x
    180,000 users have paid for blue checks in the past two months which will generate under $25M/year for Twitter. This is a drop in the bucket for their revenue goals and less than 0.5% of pre-acquisition revenue. Also revenue is down -40% since acquisition https://www.theinformati…
  • @russbengtson @russbengtson on x
    now, is there any way to preemptively mute all 180k of them https://twitter.com/...
  • @meghanbobrowsky Meghan Bobrowsky on x
    for reference, Snapchat's subscription service, called Snapchat+, has 2 million+ subscribers https://twitter.com/...
  • @davekarpf Dave Karpf on x
    I mean look, @elonmusk said he wanted subscriptions to be half of Twitter's annual revenue. Subscriptions right now are bringing in $28M. But if he just keeps decimating the ad business, then he's sure to meet this ambitious goal. #businessgenius! https://twitter.com/...
  • @ngrossman81 Nicholas Grossman on x
    Getting 290,000 people to pay a monthly fee for a status symbol that degrades with every purchase—and provides little besides showing people you paid for it and that you're a fan of the owner—would be pretty good business if you weren't also losing way more money in the process. …
  • @tomwarren Tom Warren on x
    I'm surprised that 180,000 people are even willing to pay $8 per month for Twitter tbh https://www.theinformation.com/ ...
  • @goldman Jason Goldman on x
    Oh look the completely predictable outcome everyone said would happen. https://twitter.com/...
  • @abusulayman @abusulayman on x
    People are willing to pay for services they need... 1. Troll mapping 2. Pay per article 3. Monitization without losing legecy check 4.better reporting and banning of bot marketing 5. Upgraded harrasement complaint evaluation by a real person @elonmusk https://twitter.com/...
  • @ddayen David Dayen on x
    About 179,995 more than expected so good on ya https://www.theinformation.com/ ...
  • @otto_english Otto English on x
    Less than 0.2% of monthly active users in the US have subscribed to Twitter Blue. And that's 62% of all subscriptions globally. https://www.theinformation.com/ ...
  • @maxkennerly Max Kennerly on x
    Impressive how, 10 months after making an offer to buy it, Musk still hasn't released any new products or features. (Twitter Blue is an emoji.) It's all just the same site, only worse: awful people unbanned, clueless fiddling with the algorithm, broken API, busted verification. h…
  • @travisbrown Travis Brown on x
    Finally some internal info about the Twitter Blue relaunch. This leak suggests the current number is around 340k, which is toward the low end of what I would have guessed (as of yesterday I'd identified 289k). https://twitter.com/...
  • @kurtwagner8 Kurt Wagner on x
    $28m in ANNUAL revenue for Twitter Blue. Elon's bet that subscription revenue would be the savior for Twitter's business has been a massive miscalculation so far. https://twitter.com/...
  • @paultassi Paul Tassi on x
    the thing is, I'm on here so much, I would probably actually pay for Twitter Blue if it did anything remotely useful besides give any random account a checkmark which make's the site's usability trash, and an edit feature that breaks the timeline https://twitter.com/...
  • @tier10k @tier10k on x
    ~180k people in the US were paying for Twitter Blue as of mid-Jan, less than 0.2% of monthly active users Altogether, the global number of subs would equate to ~$28m in annual revenue, less than 1% of the $3b Musk has said Twitter aims to make this year https://www.theinformation…
  • @pattymo Patrick Monahan on x
    Sure, the service is worse every day and it came at a huge financial and reputational cost, but at least no one's paying for it https://twitter.com/...
  • @abebrown716 Abe Brown on x
    Twitter has managed to attract only around 300,000 subscribers, which, at $8/month, is less than $30 million in annual revenue. Which is ... not great when you consider it has lost 35% of its ad revenue—nearly $2 billion. @erinkwoo has the scoop: https://www.theinformation.com/ .…