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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Jawbone delays UP3 fitness band release until after holidays, offers discounts to preorderers

Jawbone's Missing Christmas  —  If you wonder how long the market can support richly valued startups, and what sorts of corporate stress might test investor enthusiasm, look no further than Jawbone …

Bloomberg View Katie Benner

Context & Ripple Effects

Jawbone entered the 2014 holiday season with its flagship UP3 band unshippable, and is now buying back goodwill with discounts for customers who preordered a device they will not receive before Christmas. Bloomberg's framing treats the slip as a stress test for richly valued startups, and the coverage that follows vindicates that reading.

The recovery was slow and lossy: the UP3 finally began shipping in April, four months late and stripped of the 10-meter water resistance promised earlier. A week later Jawbone restructured the line around the $199 Up4 with NFC payments and a $100 Up2, and by mid-2016 sources reported Jawbone had stopped making UP trackers altogether, selling remaining inventory at a discount to raise cash.

First-order effects

  • Preorder customers get a discount instead of a device for the holidays, while Jawbone forfeits the highest-volume gift-buying window for its new flagship to whatever rivals have on shelves.

Second-order effects

  • The discount-and-delay playbook signals cash strain to investors, and the subsequent moves follow the same logic: a rushed April relaunch of the lineup, then liquidating tracker inventory at a discount to raise money.

Third-order effects

The trend: Consumer wearable startups that miss flagship launch windows face a compounding cycle of goodwill discounts, inventory liquidation, and eventual retreat from the consumer market toward clinical or enterprise buyers.