ASML says it cannot fully meet AI-driven demand for its chipmaking tools in 2027 and 2028, and is seeing “strong interest” in orders for 2029 and 2030
ASML (ASML.AS) said on Wednesday AI-driven demand for its chip-printing tools is so strong that it will not be able …
Reuters
Context & Ripple Effects
ASML had flagged equipment scarcity as a constraint on chipmakers’ expansion plans in 2022, then set out a 2026 increase in standard EUV production as AI-chip demand accelerated. Its €5.4 billion in Q3 bookings in 2025 also indicated that demand for its most sophisticated tools was already outpacing expectations.
The new multi-year supply warning makes clear that higher 2026 output has not closed the gap. As the sole supplier of EUV systems, ASML is the binding equipment supplier for customers seeking that class of capacity.
First-order effects
ASML customers planning advanced AI-chip capacity for 2027 and 2028 face a constrained equipment pipeline, while ASML gains unusually long visibility into prospective 2029 and 2030 demand.
ASML’s production planning shifts from meeting near-term orders to allocating scarce tool capacity across several years of customer demand.
Second-order effects
Chipmakers seeking EUV capacity have greater incentive to secure tool slots earlier, making access to ASML equipment a more decisive input to their expansion timetables.
ASML’s network of 2,000 suppliers becomes a central constraint on any effort to raise output, extending AI-infrastructure demand pressure beyond the lithography vendor itself.
Third-order effects
If sustained, the backlog reinforces a semiconductor market in which advanced-chip capacity is governed as much by access to specialized manufacturing equipment as by chipmaker capital spending.
The mismatch between equipment demand and supply also complicates efforts to stimulate regional chip production: new fab demand must compete for the same limited ASML tool capacity.
The trend:AI infrastructure spending is stretching the semiconductor-equipment cycle across multiple years, with EUV availability becoming a hard cap on advanced-chip expansion.
ASML earnings and the AI trade. The forward guidance is the big story: - Looking to ramp up 2028 capacity beyond 30% already forecast - Customers expressing interest in placing orders for 2029 and 2030 Market wanted more visibility on future AI demand and it got it
$ASML CEO: “Our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers. Given this, we are investigating ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond the 30% increase we previously communicated.”
$ASML just gave one of the most bullish signals yet for the AI capex cycle: it still cannot build enough machines to meet customer demand through 2028. 3Q26 was excellent: Revenue €11.7B. Gross margin 57.5% vs 54.8% expected. EPS €12.95 vs €10.60 expected. FY26 guidance raised ag…
$ASML CEO: “In light of their demand visibility, some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030...we now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers”