Center for Technology & Statecraft: Chinese fabs had acquired ~343 DUVi tools by early 2026, with ~270 from ASML; DUVi can be adapted to make 7nm chips and HBM
DUV tools, though not as advanced as EUV, can be adapted to manufacture 7-nm logic chips and advanced memory for AI processors, report says.
South China Morning PostHoward Liu
Context & Ripple Effects
Chinese chipmakers had already been reported to be retrofitting older ASML DUV systems for advanced smartphone and AI chips, while SMIC was testing a domestically produced DUV machine. The reported installed base puts a number on the imported-tool bridge available while domestic alternatives mature.
A Chinese state-backed manufacturer began producing DUV machines in 2026, following earlier state guidance favoring improved home-developed lithography. The mix of existing ASML tools and local-machine development matters because DUV, rather than EUV alone, can support parts of the AI-chip supply chain.
First-order effects
Chinese fabs have a sizable DUV equipment base that can be adapted for 7nm logic and HBM production, extending their manufacturing options for AI processors without EUV tools.
ASML accounts for roughly 270 of the reported 343 tools, making its legacy DUV fleet a material part of Chinese fabs' near-term production capability.
Second-order effects
China's domestic DUV makers gain a clearer transition market: locally made machines can be introduced alongside installed ASML tools rather than needing to replace the entire lithography base at once.
The reported ability to use DUV for both logic and HBM links lithography access to two constrained layers of AI hardware supply, increasing the strategic weight of controls on immersion DUV equipment.
Third-order effects
If Chinese fabs can pair imported DUV capacity with new domestic DUV manufacturing, export restrictions may increasingly determine the pace of capability improvement rather than create an absolute divide between advanced and mature-node production.
The AI hardware contest is broadening from leading-edge logic tools to the equipment and process know-how needed across logic and memory, including HBM.
The trend: AI-compute competition is becoming a contest over the full lithography and memory-production stack, with installed DUV capacity serving as a bridge to domestic equipment.
While AI chip exports get more attention, whether China can continue to import ASML's DUV immersion (DUVi) lithography machines will be the decisive factor in US-China AI competition over the next decade. @techstatecraft has published a 30,000-word report that models how continue…
@konstantinpilz
Konstantin F. Pilz on x
America is squandering its key advantage in AI competition. Since 2023, China has imported than 250 DUVi machines — technology that China needs to make domestic AI chips like Huawei's Ascend 950. While we've been cutting China off from importing AI chips directly we're still send…
@fiiiiiist
Tim Fist on x
One simple policy change would massively alter the US-China AI competition: a China-wide ban on all DUV-immersion lithography machine exports. This is the difference between a persistent 10x advantage in US AI chip production and China potentially catching up.
@arthurctellis
Arthur Tellis on x
The PRC intends to indigenize logic/memory/SME manufacture to limit its exposure to US-influenceable supply chains. They'll succeed, but we can affect the speed with which they achieve that goal as well as their total chip manufacture today by restricting DUV export to China. The…
@anton_d_leicht
Anton Leicht on x
It's in both the American and the European strategic interest to stop ASML's DUVi exports to China. But right now, Americans feel like they have no choice but to beat the Dutch into submission. That makes for a volatile standoff, and it could backfire on both sides: (1) The propo…
@hamish_low5
Hamish Low on x
New forecast of China's lithography indigenization progress! It reaches a similar estimate of the historical base rate as the forecast I co-authored with @AI_Futures_, placing DUV immersion indigenization, based on the historical trajectory, in the mid 2030s 🧵
@khansaifm
Saif M. Khan on x
ASML's DUV immersion (DUVi) tools are the most important tools Chinese chipmakers like Huawei need to make AI chips, and China won't commercialize their indigenous versions at scale until well into the 2030s. But current export controls only ban the most advanced versions China-w…
@techstatecraft
@techstatecraft on x
How many AI chips will China be able to make over the next ten years? One decisive factor is whether USG continues to allow China to import DUVi lithography tools. @nchlsbrwn and @KhanSaifM developed a model of Chinese chip production and found that DUVi is the most serious looph…