Tablet sales slow in 2Q on absence of new iPad, IDC says
The research firm says tablet shipments should remain weak in the current quarter but pick up in the last three months of the year. — The iPad Mini. — The second quarter wasn't especially bright for tablet sales, and Apple is partly to blame, according to IDC.
Context & Ripple Effects
IDC had already warned in 2011 that tablet shipments were falling short of elevated expectations. By early 2013, Apple’s iPad share had fallen to 43.6% while Samsung and Amazon held meaningful positions, making the category less dependent on a single vendor than at launch.
The second-quarter slowdown nevertheless shows that Apple’s product cadence still moves the aggregate market: IDC expects weakness to persist through the current quarter before a year-end pickup. Apple's earlier slide to 43.6% tablet share frames why a pause in iPad updates matters both to Apple and to rivals.
First-order effects
- IDC’s near-term tablet shipment outlook weakens, with the absence of a new iPad identified as one contributor to softer second-quarter sales and a weak current quarter.
- Apple loses a fresh-product catalyst in a period when its iPad share was already under pressure from Samsung and Amazon.
Second-order effects
- Samsung and Amazon have an opening to compete for buyers whose purchases are not timed to an iPad refresh, extending the competitive significance of their existing tablet positions.
- Retailers and component suppliers face a more uneven demand pattern, with IDC’s forecast concentrating expected improvement in the final three months of 2013 rather than across the year.
Third-order effects
- The category is moving away from the early expectation of uninterrupted shipment growth toward a market whose quarterly results are more sensitive to major vendors’ refresh cycles, as IDC’s 2011 shipment warning had already signaled.
- If rival share gains persist between iPad updates, tablet competition will be determined less by Apple’s installed leadership alone and more by each vendor’s ability to sustain demand through product cycles.
The trend: Tablet demand is becoming more cyclical and more competitively distributed, with Apple’s refresh timing still influential but no longer the category’s sole determinant.