What If The Google Reader Readers Just Don't Come Back?
If judged by my Twitter stream last week, the shutdown of Google Reader is the biggest story ever in the history of news. Of course, the reality is that Google is likely shutting down the product for a good reason: relatively few people used it, with less using it over time.
Context & Ripple Effects
Google Reader’s closure follows a mixed record in the corpus: Google said the product was doing fine in 2010, while a 2009 critique pointed to users already leaving it. By March 2013, Google’s stated rationale is declining use, alongside reported privacy and compliance concerns.
The unusually broad pickup of the story reflects a mismatch between vocal RSS users and the service’s reported scale. The key question is whether that vocal audience can sustain alternatives once Google’s distribution and hosting are removed.
First-order effects
- Google Reader users must move their feeds and reading routines before Google ends the service on July 1.
- Google exits a news-aggregation product whose reported usage had been falling, while removing a service facing privacy and compliance concerns.
Second-order effects
- RSS providers and other feed-reading services gain a concentrated opportunity to win displaced Reader users, while publishers risk losing a familiar route to their most feed-oriented readers.
Third-order effects
- If declining usage and compliance burdens continue to outweigh the value of niche free products, Google’s service portfolio will favor products with clearer strategic reach over long-tail utilities such as Reader.
The trend: Google Reader is one data point in the consolidation of free web services around products that can justify their usage, operational, and compliance costs.