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Apple vs. Microsoft: Today is Windows Phone 8 day

On Monday it unveiled its answer to iPad.  Now what will Redmond do about iPhone?  —  FORTUNE — “I am going to go out on a limb,” Al Hilwa, IDC's applications software analyst wrote Monday after Microsoft (MSFT) unveiled its answer to Apple's …

Fortune Philip Elmer-DeWitt

Context & Ripple Effects

Microsoft’s phone strategy has been framed against the iPhone since early signs of iPhone envy in 2008, with a later phone experiment underscoring how long it has been searching for a credible mobile position. The Windows Phone 8 preview follows Microsoft’s Surface unveiling, putting phones and tablets at the center of the same Apple-facing product push.

Coverage had already flagged Windows Phone’s move into the spotlight before the announcement. The disclosed support for NFC, multi-core processors, a redesigned Start Screen and OS-level VoIP gives that spotlight concrete platform capabilities rather than another positioning exercise.

First-order effects

  • Microsoft gives Windows Phone hardware partners a platform designed for dual- and quad-core devices, NFC and integrated VoIP, broadening the feature set they can take to market against the iPhone.
  • Apple faces a more explicit Microsoft challenge across both tablets and phones after Surface and the Windows Phone 8 preview, rather than a contest confined to PC software.

Second-order effects

  • Windows Phone developers must account for OS-integrated VoIP and the new Start Screen, making Microsoft’s platform design—not only handset specifications—a more consequential route to users.
  • Microsoft’s device and software strategy raises the importance of a consistent experience across Windows Phone and Surface, increasing pressure on Microsoft to make its mobile platforms feel like a connected portfolio.

Third-order effects

  • If Windows Phone hardware support translates into partner devices, mobile competition shifts further from single-device comparisons toward control of the operating system, interface and service layer across screens.
  • The pattern points to Microsoft using its software platform to re-enter consumer hardware categories where Apple’s integrated iPhone-and-iPad approach has set the competitive reference point.

The trend: Mobile competition is becoming a contest between integrated device portfolios and the operating systems that coordinate their hardware, interfaces and communications features.