In US, Smartphones Now Majority of New Cellphone Purchases
Apple iOS up, Android flat, RIM down among recent acquirers. — Smartphones continue to grow in popularity. According to Nielsen's May survey of mobile consumers in the U.S., 38 percent now own smartphones.
Context & Ripple Effects
Nielsen had already identified Android as the leading operating system among recent U.S. smartphone buyers in October 2010. The May survey changes the competitive frame: smartphones are no longer a niche purchase category, while Apple gains among recent acquirers and RIM loses ground.
With 38 percent of U.S. mobile consumers owning smartphones, replacement buying is becoming the main channel through which operating-system shares are contested.
First-order effects
- Apple, Android handset makers and RIM face a larger pool of new-phone buyers, with Apple gaining share among recent acquirers, Android holding steady and RIM declining.
- Nielsen’s purchase data makes new-device sales—not only the installed base—the immediate measure of platform momentum.
Second-order effects
- RIM must contend with a market in which its shrinking share of recent buyers can translate into a weaker pipeline of future users, while Apple and Android vendors compete for mainstream replacement demand.
- Carriers and handset retailers have greater incentive to foreground smartphone plans and devices as smartphones become the majority choice among new cellphone purchasers.
Third-order effects
- If replacement purchasing continues to favor smartphone platforms, U.S. mobile competition will increasingly be shaped by operating-system ecosystems rather than by the broader cellphone market.
- The diverging acquisition shares point toward a more concentrated platform contest, with incumbent handset brands exposed when they fail to convert new buyers.
The trend: U.S. mobile buying is shifting from feature phones to smartphone platforms, making each replacement cycle a contest for ecosystem share.