Who Will Win the Android vs. iPhone Race?
Google's mobile OS will be on top by year-end 2012 — The iPhone may have captured the hearts and minds of many tech-savvy early smartphone adopters—not to mention marketers—with its sleek design, multitouch interface and available apps.
Context & Ripple Effects
The market-share call extends a multi-year run of forecasts that Android would climb rapidly, from a projected No. 2 position by 2012 to forecasts of it passing Apple and RIM. By January 2011, coverage had framed the contest as the real Android–iPhone battle rather than a settled Apple-led market.
The distinction matters because the iPhone’s appeal to early smartphone adopters and marketers does not necessarily determine operating-system scale. The article makes Android’s projected 2012 lead the measure of the race.
First-order effects
- Google gains a clearer scale narrative for Android: a projected market lead by the end of 2012 would place its OS ahead in the smartphone race.
- Apple’s iPhone faces a sharper comparison between its appeal to early adopters and marketers and Android’s projected breadth.
Second-order effects
- RIM is squeezed by a contest increasingly framed around Google and Apple, continuing the earlier forecast that Android would pass both rivals.
- Handset makers and marketers have stronger incentive to treat Android reach and iPhone audience appeal as separate buying and product-positioning decisions.
Third-order effects
- If Android’s projected lead materializes, smartphone competition shifts from a single-device popularity contest toward competition between operating-system ecosystems with different routes to scale.
- The race points to distribution and handset availability becoming as important to mobile-platform leadership as the product experience associated with a flagship phone.
The trend: Smartphone competition is consolidating around mobile operating systems, with Android pursuing broad scale while the iPhone retains influence among early adopters and marketers.