Robinhood adds Crypto.com's yes-or-no contracts to its platform and takes minority stakes in Crypto.com and prediction market company OG, spun out of Crypto.com
Context & Ripple Effects
Robinhood’s July results showed event-contract revenue exceeding ten times its prior-year level while crypto revenue fell 38%, making the divergence between event contracts and crypto trading central to its product mix. The company had also expanded into tokenized stocks, staking and settlement infrastructure in 2025, signaling a broader effort to make crypto-linked financial products part of its platform.
The Crypto.com and OG arrangement pairs distribution with ownership: Robinhood is adding the partners’ contracts while taking minority positions in both the parent and its spun-out prediction-market business.
First-order effects
- Robinhood users gain access to Crypto.com’s yes-or-no contracts, while Crypto.com and OG gain Robinhood distribution for their prediction-market infrastructure.
- Robinhood’s minority stakes align it financially with Crypto.com and OG as their contracts and clearing services support its prediction-markets offering.
Second-order effects
- The partnership gives OG a customer channel without requiring Robinhood to build equivalent infrastructure internally, shifting more of Robinhood’s event-contract expansion toward an external supplier.
- Robinhood’s event-contract business becomes less dependent on crypto transaction revenue, whose decline contrasted with the earlier surge in event-contract revenue.
Third-order effects
- If brokerages continue to pair customer distribution with stakes in contract and clearing providers, prediction markets may consolidate around a small set of embedded infrastructure partners rather than standalone consumer venues.
- The deal extends Robinhood’s move toward a platform spanning securities, crypto-linked products and event contracts, with ownership interests used to secure capabilities as well as supply.
The trend: Prediction markets are becoming a broker-distributed product category, with consumer platforms using investments and infrastructure partnerships to scale supply.