Gartner Says Q4 PC Shipments Down 5% To 90.3M Units
If the huge profusion of mobile handsets, phablets and tablets on display at CES weren't enough of an indicator, we now have some numbers from Gartner …
Context & Ripple Effects
Gartner’s 2012 tracking had already shown PC sales essentially flat in the second quarter while smartphone sales rose sharply, separating the mature computer market from faster-growing mobile demand. Its forecast of nearly 46 billion mobile-app downloads further underscored where software activity was concentrating.
The fourth-quarter shipment decline gives that split a clearer hardware-market signal: PC vendors entered 2013 with lower unit demand even as CES attention clustered around mobile form factors.
First-order effects
- PC manufacturers and their component suppliers face a 5% year-over-year reduction in fourth-quarter shipment volume, to 90.3 million units, tightening the market for conventional PCs.
- Gartner’s shipment data gives buyers, investors, and vendors a benchmark for planning against weaker PC demand rather than treating CES product activity as a demand signal.
Second-order effects
- Smartphone and tablet makers gain leverage in retailer shelf space and consumer-device budgets as PC makers compete for a smaller shipment pool.
- PC vendors are pushed to differentiate beyond shipment volume, while software developers have stronger incentives to follow the mobile-app demand Gartner has forecast.
Third-order effects
- If the divergence between flat-to-falling PC sales and rising smartphone demand persists, personal computing shifts from a PC-centered hardware cycle toward mobile devices and their software ecosystems.
- The resulting market structure favors companies able to connect hardware distribution with application platforms, rather than vendors dependent chiefly on standalone PC replacements.
The trend: Personal computing demand is fragmenting from conventional PCs toward mobile devices, with application ecosystems becoming a central competitive layer.