In Some Virtual Worlds, the Thrill Is Gone
Zynga and other social game developers search for the next FarmVille-scale hit — Just a few weeks after Mafia Wars 2 went live on Facebook, Din Shlomi got tired of playing the game. A self-described hard-core gamer from northern Israel …
Context & Ripple Effects
Social games had been framed as resilient during the downturn in 2009 coverage of social gaming's recession performance, but the sector also drew scrutiny over the practices captured in the “Scamville” critique. By March 2011, Zynga coverage was already focused on managing a FarmVille “time-bomb” problem.
The new concern is retention rather than initial reach: Zynga and its peers are searching for another FarmVille-scale success as an early Mafia Wars 2 player reports losing interest within weeks. That question carries added weight ahead of Zynga's anticipated IPO.
First-order effects
- Zynga faces a sharper test of whether new titles can hold players long enough to become durable businesses, rather than merely generate an early launch spike.
- The anticipated IPO puts Zynga's dependence on finding another large hit under closer investor scrutiny.
Second-order effects
- Other social-game developers pursuing a FarmVille-scale success must compete more directly on retaining players, not just attracting Facebook users to a new release.
- For Facebook, the flattening and decline in game traffic described in contemporaneous coverage makes third-party social games a less dependable source of platform engagement.
Third-order effects
- If fatigue is appearing across major launches, social gaming shifts from a model centered on repeat blockbuster launches toward one where sustained engagement is the limiting asset.
- The sector's economics become more exposed to the short life cycle of individual games, raising the value of portfolios that can absorb the loss of momentum in any one title.
The trend: Social gaming is moving from growth driven by a breakout title toward a retention-driven service business in which recurring engagement matters as much as initial viral reach.