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Chronicles

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Lessons From the Failure of Flash: Greed Kills

Adobe's decision to stop development of mobile Flash has deservedly gotten a lot of attention online.  It's a sad story for Adobe and Flash developers: a dominating standard on the PC web failed to get traction in mobile, and will now be abandoned gradually in favor of HTML 5.

Mobile Opportunity Michael Mace

Context & Ripple Effects

Adobe’s retreat follows the weak performance of its Android Flash player in 2010, which underscored the gap between Flash’s PC-web reach and its mobile position. The company has paired the mobile decision with a plan to contribute more aggressively to HTML5 and a focus on Adobe AIR applications.

The scope is broader than phones: Adobe also ended its effort to bring Flash applications to TV devices, making the change a retrenchment from a cross-screen runtime strategy rather than a single-product adjustment.

First-order effects

  • Adobe and Flash developers must redirect new mobile rich-application work toward HTML5 and Adobe AIR rather than continued browser-based mobile Flash development.
  • TV-device developers lose the prospect of a Flash application runtime alongside mobile browsers, while Adobe concentrates Flash on PC browsing and mobile applications.

Second-order effects

  • HTML5 gains a more committed Adobe contributor, giving web developers a standards-based path for experiences that Flash was intended to deliver across mobile and TV screens.
  • Adobe AIR becomes more important to developers seeking Adobe-supported mobile application tooling as browser-based Flash support is wound down.

Third-order effects

  • If developers follow Adobe’s shift, cross-device rich media and application delivery will depend less on a proprietary browser plug-in and more on web standards plus app runtimes.
  • The episode points to mobile platforms setting the terms for web technology adoption: PC-web dominance alone no longer sustains a cross-screen standard.

The trend: Rich web experiences are moving from proprietary browser runtimes toward HTML5-based delivery and platform-supported application frameworks.

Related: Adobe · Flash · Adobe abandons Flash on TVs · Weak Android Flash player

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