Gartner Says Android to Command Nearly Half of Worldwide Smartphone Operating System Market by Year-End 2012
Worldwide smartphone sales will reach 468 million units in 2011, a 57.7 percent increase from 2010, according to Gartner Inc. By the end of 2011, Android will move to become …
Context & Ripple Effects
Gartner's 2009 view that Android would reach the No. 2 position by 2012 has been overtaken by a sharper forecast of Android's rise: it is projected to lead the smartphone OS market by the end of 2012. The estimate arrives as Gartner expects 468 million smartphone sales in 2011, making operating-system share a larger channel for device makers and developers.
Android's momentum had already been framed as pressure on Research In Motion, while game-developer economics and the expanding app-download market give the forecast commercial weight beyond handset shipments.
First-order effects
- Android handset makers gain a stronger sales narrative as Gartner projects the platform will approach half of worldwide smartphone OS share by year-end 2012.
- Research In Motion faces more acute competitive pressure as Android's projected scale raises the stakes for BlackBerry's smartphone position.
Second-order effects
- Game developers and other app publishers have greater incentive to prioritize Android releases, since the platform is already reported to be more profitable than iOS for one game developer and app-store downloads are forecast to grow.
- Competing smartphone platforms must counter Android's expanding device presence with clearer differentiation for both buyers and developers.
Third-order effects
- If Android converts forecast share into sustained usage, smartphone competition shifts from winning individual handset launches toward controlling the developer and application-distribution ecosystem.
- The projected concentration of OS share makes platform reach a more important bargaining asset for handset makers, software publishers, and app stores.
The trend: Smartphone growth is concentrating value around operating-system ecosystems whose device scale attracts applications and reinforces market share.