HP research shows mainstream media drive Twitter ‘trends’ to a surprising degree
Who gets to determine the big topics of conversation on social media? And how do they do it? Looking to find out, HP researchers recently examined how popular subjects get to be listed among the top ‘trending’ topics on Twitter.
Context & Ripple Effects
Twitter had already made its trend display more granular with local trending topics and moved to curate tweets associated with trends, turning a raw measure of conversation into a more designed discovery surface.
HP’s research argues that mainstream media substantially shape which subjects reach that surface. That matters because Twitter is selling Promoted Trends at higher prices, so the apparent source of a trend bears on the value advertisers assign to the placement.
First-order effects
- News organizations gain evidence that their coverage can help set Twitter’s visible agenda, rather than merely react to conversations already forming on the service.
- Twitter and its advertisers must treat a trending label as a signal influenced by media attention, not a clean readout of independent user interest.
Second-order effects
- Advertisers evaluating higher-priced Promoted Trends placements will have greater reason to distinguish between attention generated by newsroom coverage and attention originating within Twitter.
- Media outlets have an incentive to coordinate publishing and Twitter distribution around fast-moving subjects when that coverage can help place a topic in the platform’s discovery layer.
Third-order effects
- If mainstream coverage repeatedly determines trend visibility, Twitter’s trend product becomes a feedback loop between editorial gatekeepers and social distribution rather than a separate public-interest meter.
- The longer-term contest is over how much platforms disclose about the inputs behind influential rankings, especially when those rankings are sold as advertising inventory.
The trend: Social platforms are becoming editorially consequential ranking systems whose visible signals blend user activity with established media attention.