What to Expect From Facebook's Android Event
Facebook is hosting a big mystery event today for the world to see its “new home on Android.” — We've reported that Facebook has been working to build software that runs on Android, Google's smartphone operating system.
Context & Ripple Effects
Facebook’s Android push follows a March report that the company was preparing a modified Android experience for an HTC device. It also arrives as Facebook enters mobile advertising while Google is projected to command more than half of 2013 mobile ad revenue.
The strategic issue is distribution, not merely a new mobile feature: a Facebook-controlled layer on Android would give the social network a more direct route to the attention it sells to advertisers.
First-order effects
- If the reported software is unveiled, Facebook gains a more prominent surface on Android devices for its services and mobile ads, while Google remains the underlying platform provider.
- HTC, named in the earlier report, would be positioned to differentiate an Android handset through Facebook’s software rather than hardware alone.
Second-order effects
- Google and Facebook’s mobile-ad businesses would compete more directly for Android users’ time and advertiser budgets, with Facebook seeking to control the entry point into the phone experience.
- Other Android handset makers face pressure to decide whether platform differentiation comes from their own software, Google’s defaults, or partnerships with major consumer internet services.
Third-order effects
- If social platforms increasingly distribute through modified Android layers, Android’s openness becomes a route for services to build system-level user relationships without owning the base operating system.
The trend: Mobile advertising competition is pushing consumer platforms to seek control of the Android interface where user attention is allocated.