Why Facebook is the New Yahoo
Facebook's awkward attempts to copy Google+ smack of a quiet desperation. — Sure, Facebook looks massively successful. With a mind-boggling 750 million users, the social site can do no wrong, right? — Wrong. — Look closer, and it looks like Facebook can do nothing right.
Context & Ripple Effects
Facebook had already faced recurring doubts about its staying power, including a 2008 assessment that it was foundering, while a July 2011 comparison argued that Google+ improved on Facebook. The new critique treats imitation—not audience size—as the meaningful competitive signal.
Facebook’s 750 million-user scale sits alongside product changes aimed at engagement and platform reach, including the Subscribe Button and the planned Project Spartan HTML5-app platform. That makes the question less about reach alone than whether Facebook can set the product agenda.
First-order effects
- Google+ becomes the immediate design benchmark for Facebook: awkwardly copying its rival risks weakening Facebook’s claim to product leadership despite its larger audience.
- Facebook’s Subscribe Button gives users more control over News Feed content, while Project Spartan would extend Facebook’s contest for attention into HTML5 apps.
Second-order effects
- Google+ can compete by presenting product improvements as an alternative to Facebook’s scale, forcing Facebook to defend user experience rather than relying on network size alone.
- Developers and publishers gain another reason to watch Facebook’s platform direction: changes to feeds and HTML5 app distribution affect how audiences are reached inside the network.
Third-order effects
- If large social networks must continually copy each other’s features to retain engagement, differentiation shifts from accumulated users toward control of feeds, developer platforms, and distribution rules.
- The pattern points to social networking becoming a broader platform contest, where a large audience is necessary but does not by itself establish durable product leadership.
The trend: Social networks are evolving from standalone destinations into competing distribution and application platforms, with feed control and developer ecosystems becoming central battlegrounds.